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user052919 commented on Show HN: Ask LLMs to predict anything based on news   aipredict.fun/... · Posted by u/artembugara
niles · a year ago
I was hoping for a tool that would reference "all" news, mainly historical news, and give some reasoning based on past patterns. My query on Kamala does not seem to factor in the news from just before the last Trump win over Hillary and how that time period contributed to a surprise win. It also doesn't seem to incorporate Regan, or past high inflation periods and how those news stories influenced the elections of the time.

It seems like this is a tool that "if you could read all the news of today, what would your gut tell you", and that is helpful but not thorough.

For example, can you apply the cureent reasoning to news articles from previous time periods and use the prediction on a past result. Would your prediction be accurate? If no, maybe re-reason.

https://aipredict.fun/prediction/1074cf90-c818-44fd-be0b-c00...

user052919 · a year ago
This is great feedback! Thanks for giving it a try.

You're right that we're limited in how much news we can pull. Generally, we can only look about 90 days into the past for news articles.

I'd definitely like to expand the corpus of information that we can pull from. Getting access to reliable historical data is high on that list, as it will dramatically improve base rate estimation.

user052919 commented on Show HN: Ask LLMs to predict anything based on news   aipredict.fun/... · Posted by u/artembugara
user052919 · a year ago
Atlas founder here. Happy to answer any questions people have about the tool!
user052919 · a year ago
We just increased our server resources because a lot of questions are getting asked (thank you!). Hoping to keep the wait times manageable
user052919 commented on Show HN: Ask LLMs to predict anything based on news   aipredict.fun/... · Posted by u/artembugara
jmartens · a year ago
Can you provide an example of the type of question that comes back with a reasonable prediction? So far, I've tried 3 times, and the answer each time was something along the lines of [prediction will be true] if [they do the thing that makes the prediction true] which is not useful.
user052919 · a year ago
Sure! Sorry to hear you've had some bad ones. If you have links handy it'd be great to see which ones went wrong so we can try to improve.

But here are some recent predictions that we thought were pretty reasonable: * https://aipredict.fun/prediction/a0354d22-d44a-4115-a774-1cc... * https://aipredict.fun/prediction/1518666d-d5f8-40b1-bee9-561... * https://aipredict.fun/prediction/c13193fa-4155-4b47-b50a-432...

user052919 commented on Show HN: Ask LLMs to predict anything based on news   aipredict.fun/... · Posted by u/artembugara
user052919 · a year ago
Atlas founder here. Happy to answer any questions people have about the tool!
user052919 commented on Medical records are the most important thing missing from your will   laprade.blog/medical-reco... · Posted by u/kmdupree
JohnFen · 2 years ago
Medical records can be extremely problematic. I don't know how to get mine (if that's even possible) while I'm alive. I've had too many different doctors over too long of a time period to be able to remember all the different people I'd have to ask (and several of them are no longer even in practice).
user052919 · 2 years ago
It's hard for sure. But much easier for you than your kids/grandkids
user052919 commented on Ask HN: What sub $200 product improved your 2023    · Posted by u/user052919
dexwiz · 2 years ago
Do you normally wear glasses?
user052919 · 2 years ago
I need them to drive and I wear them at work. I didn't appreciate how much I was missing them outside until I got some.
user052919 commented on Ask HN: What sub $200 product improved your 2023    · Posted by u/user052919
user052919 · 2 years ago
I'll add my own: prescription sunglasses. Game changer.

u/user052919

KarmaCake day188May 29, 2019View Original