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sksxihve commented on AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu   dwarkesh.com/p/ege-tamay... · Posted by u/Philpax
futureshock · 4 months ago
There’s increasing evidence that LLMs are more than that. Especially work by Anthropic has been showing how to trace the internal logic of an LLM as it answers a question. They can in fact reason over facts contained in the model, not just repeat already seen information.

A simple example is how LLMs do math. They are not calculators and have not memorized every sum in existence. Instead they deploy a whole set of mental math techniques that were discovered at training time. For example, Claude uses a special trick for adding 2 digit numbers ending in 6 and 9.

Many more examples in this recent reach report, including evidence of future planning while writing rhyming poetry.

https://www.anthropic.com/research/tracing-thoughts-language...

sksxihve · 4 months ago
> sometimes this "chain of thought" ends up being misleading; Claude sometimes makes up plausible-sounding steps to get where it wants to go. From a reliability perspective, the problem is that Claude’s "faked" reasoning can be very convincing.

If you ask the LLM to explain how it got the answer the response it gives you won't necessarily be the steps it used to figure out the answer.

sksxihve commented on OpenAI looked at buying Cursor creator before turning to Windsurf   cnbc.com/2025/04/17/opena... · Posted by u/mfiguiere
InkCanon · 4 months ago
Strongly suspect OAI can't afford 20B cash. Their latest funding round was 40B, and they're burning through money like it's rice paper. They could offer OAI equity, but Cursor's founders would probably be very suspicious of private valued stock (which is fairy money).

How wise it is to buy Cursor is another question. Current valuation has them at 100x revenue. And I suspect agentic products will be a lot less cash flow positive than traditional SaaS because of the massive cost of all that constant codebase context and stream of code.

sksxihve · 4 months ago
> The initial funding will be $10 billion, followed by the remaining $30 billion by the end of 2025, the person said. But the round comes with a caveat. SoftBank said in an updated disclosure on Monday that its total investment could be slashed to as low as $20 billion if OpenAI doesn’t restructure into a for-profit entity by Dec. 31.

They might not even get the full $40 billion

sksxihve commented on OpenAI o3 and o4-mini   openai.com/index/introduc... · Posted by u/maheshrijal
w10-1 · 4 months ago
> This is just getting to be a bit much, seems like they are > trying to cover for the fact that they haven't actually done much

Or perhaps they're trying to make some important customers happy by showing movement on areas the customers care about. Subjectively, customers get locked in by feeling they have the inside track, and these small tweaks prove that. Objectively, the small change might make a real difference to the customer's use case.

Similarly, it's important to force development teams to actually ship, and shipping more frequently reduces risk, so this could reflect internal discipline.

As for media buzz, OpenAI is probably trying to tamp that down; they have plenty of first-mover advantage. More puffery just makes their competitors seem more important, and the risk to their reputation of a flop is a lot larger than the reward of the next increment.

As for "a bit much", before 2023 I was thinking I could meaningfully track progress and trade-off's in selecting tech, but now the cat is not only out of the bag, it's had more litters than I can count. So, yeah - a bit much!

sksxihve · 4 months ago
> Or perhaps they're trying to make some important customers happy by showing movement on areas the customers care about

Or make important investors happy, they need to justify the latest $40 billion round

u/sksxihve

KarmaCake day581October 17, 2024View Original