As a $20 month user, I can tell you in my experience it's "refactoring" jobs that really smash through those tokens quickly. If you do a "write a component that does this" kinda thing, you can use the $20 plan almost an unlimited amount of time. If you are doing "find all instances of ComponentFoo, change to ComponentBar, refactor each screen for correct usage of ComponentBar" kinda things, it's going to grep through your code, find multiple files, read all of them into context and start making changes one by one and/or spin up a subagent to do it. You'll be rate limited pretty quick doing things that way.
That kind of gives a point in favor of AI enabled IDEs, these kind of operations could often be achieved with simple refactoring tools available without AI today and save massive amount of trees.
Bubbles do damage when they pop and surprise everyone, but I don't think too many people outside of SV will be surprised when this train eventually goes off the tracks.
The problem here is not that there's an AI bubble, it's that the AI and tech folks are so disconnected from regular people.
This is were AI maybe today cost too high, not enough customers. Some firms will survive (Amazon/Google of the AI era) others will fold.
I think there plenty of success stories out there but there a lot of snakeoil propped up by VCs.
Who will be the pet.com of the 2020s?
Also everyone and their cab drivers have money in Nvidia right now. I think we all get hurt here.