nicolashahn (u/nicolashahn)

nicolashahn commented on Are Young People Having Enough Sex? newyorker.com/magazine/20... · Posted by u/tysone

WarOnPrivacy · 2 months ago

My sons don't date. They'd like to but to what eventual end?

It is impossible for 2 typical wage earners to pair off and start a family.

nicolashahn · 2 months ago

Income is inversely correlated with fertility

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility

nicolashahn commented on Denmark to raise retirement age to 70 telegraph.co.uk/world-new... · Posted by u/wslh

fakedang · 3 months ago

Any data on the birthrates of the younger generations being born today?

nicolashahn · 3 months ago

I found this article from 2017:

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/11/29/europes-grow...

The most recent birth rate stats I can find is 2005-2010 where Muslims have a birth rate of 3.0 while the rest of the country is at 1.8. Estimates say it's more like 2.5 now, but the current overall UK birth rate is only 1.57 from a quick Google.

https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2...

The same article also states that the average age for Muslims is much lower than non-Muslims as of 2016, 28 vs 41 for the UK.

https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2017/...

nicolashahn commented on Denmark to raise retirement age to 70 telegraph.co.uk/world-new... · Posted by u/wslh

dtech · 3 months ago

This is using the same flawed logic that has had people shouting about overpopulation since the 70's: assuming current* population growth rate will continue indefinitely

* well, not even current. 15+ year old

nicolashahn · 3 months ago

The difference is that this is a change in the demographics of a population, not the overall growth, which is limited by resources available. The growth of Islam isn't constrained by anything other than the cultural practices that lead to them having more children than the rest of the population and the tolerance of the country for immigration. These things could definitely shift to balance the scales but there's no guarantee that happens and there have absolutely been many times in history where a native population has been displaced by the growth of an immigrant group.

Stepping back a bit, Pew expects Islam to overtake Christianity as the dominant world religion in a few decades: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/04/06/why-musli...

nicolashahn commented on Denmark to raise retirement age to 70 telegraph.co.uk/world-new... · Posted by u/wslh

ak_111 · 3 months ago

You are not making your point any favour. It is right that everyone is calling you out for your xenophonbic BS.

If it grew 10x between 2001 and 2009 (starting from a very small base), then between 2009 and 2023 it grew by only 0.3x (see graph below).

So rate of growth went from 10x to 0.3x in around a decade, this is a hugely significant deceleration. It actually implies muslim community as portion of population is heading lower.

https://new.islamchannel.tv/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/63860...

nicolashahn · 3 months ago

You're not comparing the same stats. The original stat was growth rate compared to the rest of the country. Islam's overall growth rate has been fairly steady for decades, although admittedly it has slowed, but at a rate that could conceivably stop above Christianity, which your chart shows is decreasing about as rapidly as Islam is rising. I think it's reasonable to project that it may settle below Islam eventually. Realistically, there will be continued backlash by native English and that may temper immigration, though even if immigration stops, the birth rate of Muslims in the UK is still much higher than native population.

However - if we're including atheist then clearly that'll be the majority position.

nicolashahn commented on Denmark to raise retirement age to 70 telegraph.co.uk/world-new... · Posted by u/wslh

mariusor · 3 months ago

According to Wikipedia[1] you are quite off base as Muslims form only 6.5% of the population as opposed to Christians (46.2%) and a-religious (37.2%).

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_the_United_Kingdom

nicolashahn · 3 months ago

I said "on the way to".

> Between 2001 and 2009, the Muslim population increased almost 10 times faster than the non-Muslim population.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom?wp...

Granted 2009 was a while ago but they're still the fastest growing population in the UK by a lot.

nicolashahn commented on Denmark to raise retirement age to 70 telegraph.co.uk/world-new... · Posted by u/wslh

CubsFan1060 · 3 months ago

Wouldn't the fourth way be via increasing either birth rate or immigration?

nicolashahn · 3 months ago

Raising the birth rate is extremely difficult and immigration will destroy a country's culture if not managed properly.

For an interesting case study, compare Japan (who refuses to allow mass immigration and is at risk of going extinct) and the UK (who has embraced it and is on the way to becoming Muslim-majority). It'll be interesting to see in 50 years which one has had better outcomes.