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meteo-jeff commented on GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting   deepmind.google/discover/... · Posted by u/bretthoerner
jjp · 2 years ago
Are you thinking something like https://www.forecastadvisor.com/?
meteo-jeff · 2 years ago
I would like to see an independent forecast comparison tool similar to Forecast Advisor, which evaluates numerical weather models. However, getting reliable ground truth data on a global scale can be a challenge.

Since Open-Meteo continuously downloads every weather model run, the resulting time series closely resembles assimilated gridded data. GraphCast relies on the same data to initialize each weather model run. By comparing past forecasts to future assimilated data, we can assess how much a weather model deviates from the "truth," eliminating the need for weather station data for comparison. This same principle is also applied to validate GraphCast.

Moreover, storing past weather model runs can enhance forecasts. For instance, if a weather model consistently predicts high temperatures for a specific large-scale weather pattern, a machine learning model (or a simple multilinear regression) can be trained to mitigate such biases. This improvement can be done for a single location with minimal computational effort.

meteo-jeff commented on GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting   deepmind.google/discover/... · Posted by u/bretthoerner
Omnipresent · 2 years ago
This is great. I am very curious about the architectural decisions you've taken here. Is there a blog post / article about them? 80 yrs of historical data -- are you storing that somewhere in PG and the APIs are just fetching it? If so, what indices have you set up to make APIs fetch faster etc. I just fetched 1960 to 2022 in about 12 secs.
meteo-jeff · 2 years ago
Traditional database systems struggle to handle gridded data efficiently. Using PG with time-based indices is memory and storage extensive. It works well for a limited number of locations, but global weather models at 9-12 km resolution have 4 to 6 million grid-cells.

I am exploiting on the homogeneity of gridded data. In a 2D field, calculating the data position for a graphical coordinate is straightforward. Once you add time as a third dimension, you can pick any timestamp at any point on earth. To optimize read speed, all time steps are stored sequentially on disk in a rotated/transposed OLAP cube.

Although the data now consists of millions of floating-point values without accompanying attributes like timestamps or geographical coordinates, the storage requirements are still high. Open-Meteo chunks data into small portions, each covering 10 locations and 2 weeks of data. Each block is individually compressed using an optimized compression scheme.

While this process isn't groundbreaking and is supported by file systems like NetCDF, Zarr, or HDF5, the challenge lies in efficiently working with multiple weather models and updating data with each new weather model run every few hours.

You can find more information here: https://openmeteo.substack.com/i/64601201/how-data-are-store...

meteo-jeff commented on GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting   deepmind.google/discover/... · Posted by u/bretthoerner
Fatnino · 2 years ago
Is there somewhere to see historical forecasts?

So not "the weather on 25 December 2022 was such and such" but rather "on 20 December 2022 the forecast for 25 December 2022 was such and such"

meteo-jeff · 2 years ago
Not yet, but I am working towards it: https://github.com/open-meteo/open-meteo/issues/206
meteo-jeff commented on GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting   deepmind.google/discover/... · Posted by u/bretthoerner
comment_ran · 2 years ago
How about https://pirateweather.net/en/latest/ ?

Does anyone have a compare this API with the latest API we have here?

meteo-jeff · 2 years ago
Both APIs use weather models from NOAA GFS and HRRR, providing accurate forecasts in North America. HRRR updates every hour, capturing recent showers and storms in the upcoming hours. PirateWeather gained popularity last year as a replacement for the Dark Sky API when Dark Sky servers were shut down.

With Open-Meteo, I'm working to integrate more weather models, offering access not only to current forecasts but also past data. For Europe and South-East Asia, high-resolution models from 7 different weather services improve forecast accuracy compared to global models. The data covers not only common weather variables like temperature, wind, and precipitation but also includes information on wind at higher altitudes, solar radiation forecasts, and soil properties.

Using custom compression methods, large historical weather datasets like ERA5 are compressed from 20 TB to 4 TB, making them accessible through a time-series API. All data is stored in local files; no database set-up required. If you're interested in creating your own weather API, Docker images are provided, and you can download open data from NOAA GFS or other weather models.

meteo-jeff commented on GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting   deepmind.google/discover/... · Posted by u/bretthoerner
meteo-jeff · 2 years ago
Extreme weather is predicted by numerical weather models. Correctly representing hurricanes has driven development on the NOAA GFS model for centuries.

Open-Meteo focuses on providing access to weather data for single locations or small areas. If you look at data for coastal areas, forecast and past weather data will show severe winds. Storm tracks or maps are not available, but might be implemented in the future.

meteo-jeff · 2 years ago
Sorry, decades.

KML files for storm tracks are still the best way to go. You could calculate storm tracks yourself for other weather models like DWD ICON, ECMWF IFS or MeteoFrance ARPEGE, but storm tracks based on GFS ensembles are easy to use with sufficient accuracy

meteo-jeff commented on GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting   deepmind.google/discover/... · Posted by u/bretthoerner
mdbmdb · 2 years ago
Is it able to provide data on extreme events. Say, the current and potential path of a hurricane? similar to .kml that NOAA provides
meteo-jeff · 2 years ago
Extreme weather is predicted by numerical weather models. Correctly representing hurricanes has driven development on the NOAA GFS model for centuries.

Open-Meteo focuses on providing access to weather data for single locations or small areas. If you look at data for coastal areas, forecast and past weather data will show severe winds. Storm tracks or maps are not available, but might be implemented in the future.

meteo-jeff commented on GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting   deepmind.google/discover/... · Posted by u/bretthoerner
meteo-jeff · 2 years ago
In case someone is looking for historical weather data for ML training and prediction, I created an open-source weather API which continuously archives weather data.

Using past and forecast data from multiple numerical weather models can be combined using ML to achieve better forecast skill than any individual model. Because each model is physically bound, the resulting ML model should be stable.

See: https://open-meteo.com

meteo-jeff commented on Ask HN: How is your Apple WeatherKit transition going?    · Posted by u/kochb
meteo-jeff · 3 years ago
I have heard the same regarding 5xx errors in the past couple of months. I am also working on open-source weather API https://open-meteo.com/. It covers most of WeatherKit features and offers more flexibility. You can either use the public API endpoint or even consider to host your own API endpoint.

Forecast quality should be comparable as the API uses open-data weather forecasts from the American weather service NOAA (GFS and HRRR models) with hourly updates. Depending on the region, weather models from other national weather services are used. Those open-data weather models are commonly used among the most popular weather APIs although without any attribution.

If you have any questions, let me know!

u/meteo-jeff

KarmaCake day547September 12, 2021
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Passionate about meteorology, data science and software development. Home at https://open-meteo.com/
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