Readit News logoReadit News

Dead Comment

larnmar commented on Iran attack: US airbases in Iraq hit by ballistic missiles   bbc.com/news/world-middle... · Posted by u/Dim25
dogma1138 · 6 years ago
Iranian air defenses are on about the same level as Syria and Israel has been running circles around those.

The US might actually get to use it’s SEAD capabilities for a change....

larnmar · 6 years ago
You could well be right, maybe Iran’s air defences are on a par with Syria’s.

I’ve suddenly realised something important — I’m commenting on important issues based on nothing but information gleaned from probably equally ignorant comments posted somewhere else. Why the heck am I doing this? I’m no expert on Iranian military capabilities.

Why do we all feel compelled to pollute the Internet with our ill-informed speculation on important issues?

I feel like I should just quit commenting on anything outside the narrow areas in which I’m a proper expert, and so should everyone else.

larnmar commented on Iran attack: US airbases in Iraq hit by ballistic missiles   bbc.com/news/world-middle... · Posted by u/Dim25
hanniabu · 6 years ago
I've seen estimates on the amount of US soldiers dead ranging from 0 to 180 while this article doesn't mention any deaths. It's crazy how large of a fluctuation there is, it's so hard to know what news sources are valid.
larnmar · 6 years ago
If casualties are zero, we can laugh it off as an impotent hissy fit by an incompetent adversary.

If casualties are non-zero, the President will be obliged to carry out his “52 targets” threat. This is probably the right move — don’t play tit-for-tat against a less powerful adversary, instead immediately escalate to a level they can’t possibly match.

Unfortunately Iran’s air defences are more potent than anyone the US has bombed recently, so we might be about to find out just how good US technology really is.

What happens next? I’m not sure. I can’t imagine the US committing to a ground invasion of Iran, but it should be possible with an air campaign to reduce Iran to the level of a 2000-era Iraq.

Edit: President Trump’s latest “all is well” tweet, and his intention to hold off on doing a briefing until tomorrow, seems to imply that US casualties were zero after all and that he’s chosen the “laugh it off” response, which is a great relief to me.

larnmar commented on Disinformation for hire: how a new breed of PR firms is selling lies online   buzzfeednews.com/article/... · Posted by u/edward
davidw · 6 years ago
There are plenty of examples where there is absolutely a side that is correct and one that is not.

Do you think the earth is flat or that people who say so should be given equal time?

There are plenty of other instances where one side is demonstrably correct.

larnmar · 6 years ago
As always, thinking about flat Earthism is a terrible exercise for your brain. The fact that a few people exist who are utterly and obviously wrong about something, and that you’re not among them, should not encourage you to think that you’re probably right about any other issue.

I like Scott Alexander’s essay on this subject, The Cowpox of Doubt: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/15/the-cowpox-of-doubt/

Basically, I think an irrational tendency towards “both sides have a point” is a lot better than an irrational tendency towards “my side is right”, and that humans tend to err in the latter way about ten thousand times more often than they err in the former.

larnmar commented on Disinformation for hire: how a new breed of PR firms is selling lies online   buzzfeednews.com/article/... · Posted by u/edward
n4r9 · 6 years ago
Hah, I deleted my account months ago and made a new account with a made-up name that literally has the word "Fake" in it, just to keep tabs on one or two groups whose events I'm interested in. Didn't even know that there was a risk they'd try to verify it.
larnmar · 6 years ago
Counteranecdote: I made a fake account for work purposes (needed to look at certain things on Facebook that you can only see while logged in, and didn’t want to use my personal account) and it got deleted pretty quickly.
larnmar commented on Australia fires: Misleading maps and pictures go viral   bbc.com/news/blogs-trendi... · Posted by u/pionerkotik
larnmar · 6 years ago
Is anyone aware of any compelling evidence that these fires were meaningfully worsened by climate change?

Dead Comment

larnmar commented on Shenzhen’s economy under strain: blame the trade war?   gbabrief.com/2019/11/shen... · Posted by u/baybal2
taurath · 6 years ago
Most citizens don’t mind the Chinese government, or at least think it’s better than alternatives. They still need the consent of the governed to rule.
larnmar · 6 years ago
Pretty easy to get the “consent of the governed” when you kill anyone who comes close to expressing dissent.
larnmar commented on Shenzhen’s economy under strain: blame the trade war?   gbabrief.com/2019/11/shen... · Posted by u/baybal2
russli1993 · 6 years ago
lol, as a Chinese I can say that most people here do not want to overthrow the government in disruptive ways. We can see both the good and bad things the government is doing. As for the bad thing, every government has issues, the main issue is whether the people and government itself can see them, and fix them. I would say that the system has enabled the people to change the government in the way the people want, and have the government enact on policies that benefit the people and hear people's demands. The process is different but nonetheless, through the past 30 years, the government through its actions demonstrated it is working for the people. Chinese people are not stupid, if its a rouge state up top we will overthrow it. The society will not be this stable. And no, if there is discontent, no amount of police and oppression is able to prevent a civil unrest.
larnmar · 6 years ago
I’m guessing you’re not an Uyghur?
larnmar commented on How Long Will Australia Be Livable?   theatlantic.com/science/a... · Posted by u/imartin2k
larnmar · 6 years ago
Bushfires haven’t got any worse over the decades, but the writing about them sure as shit has.

u/larnmar

KarmaCake day158November 18, 2019View Original