"Contrary to expectation, the synaptic strengths in the pallium remained about the same regardless of whether the fish learned anything. Instead, in the fish that learned, the synapses were pruned from some areas of the pallium — producing an effect “like cutting a bonsai tree,” Fraser said — and replanted in others."
This is a very counter intuitive. So there are existing neural connections (formed somehow previously...) and new memories form by pruning these connections? Crazy
You say it’s “essentially impossible to model” something that hasn’t occurred before.
Nations have engaged in a lot of wars.
Nations have engaged in a lot of wars they could not possibly win.
People have committed suicide to harm other people. Many many times.
Nations have developed weapons and then used those weapons on other people.
Countries that have engaged in arms races and stock piled weapons have then gone to war. Many times.
In some decades we do more of these things and in others we do less.
To say it’s hard to model, or the models are imperfect (as all models are) - fine. To say it is impossible to model - that’s very naive.
The person that has the wrong map and thinks that it’s the right map is the one that’s naive.
Regarding insurance companies, you are conflating ensemble probabilities with time probabilities. Insurance companies can estimate the ensemble probability of an event in a group of agents which belong to a certain category and not the time probability of said event on a single agent.
Compare the following: What is the probability that you will die today?
What is the probability that you will die today given that you belong to the category of people with A_i characteristics and whose ensemble probability of dying on a given day has been measured?
From reading books and watching movies as well as applying a bit of common sense, organizations like spy agencies or terrorist networks with more or less independently operating cells work with a strict least-privilege type model such that a mole in one part of the organization doesn't compromise the organization as a whole. And, I'd guess, at least in more formalized organizations, strict logging on who does what etc.
All this obviously adds a lot of overhead and friction in communications, which, say, a business operating in a competitive environment can ill afford. I'm quite sure there's no "magic pill", but rather a bunch of choices with tradeoffs (like security vs. ease of cross-team communication I touched on above).
- strict separation of concerns.
- only outbound hiring.
- no hiring of people who can be blackmailed.
- understand your threat model.
- if you were an enemy and had to break into your org, what would you do? Improve that.