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devilsavocado commented on Facebook Figured Out My Family Secrets, and It Won't Tell Me How   gizmodo.com/facebook-figu... · Posted by u/nreece
maxerickson · 8 years ago
There are roughly 300 million people in the US. A given person has, let's say, ~10,000 tenuous connections.

How often would a random selection of 1000 people from the 300 million be expected to intersect with the 10,000?

devilsavocado · 8 years ago
Napkin math: For just 1 person to intersect: Each of those 10000 people have a (10000/30000000)/100 % chance to get selected, or .00000033%. Multiply that by a thousand selections = 0.00033% chance. Those selections are refreshed maybe 100 times a year so 0.033% chance per year.

There are billions of facebook users, so this should be happening all the time by pure chance. But of course it's not pure chance. Facebook will be selecting from a pool much much smaller than 300 million, and the selections won't be random.

devilsavocado commented on How Fear and Outrage Are Sold for Profit   medium.com/the-mission/th... · Posted by u/tontonius
rosser · 8 years ago
It's customary in some contexts to italicize "loan words". The terms for the fallacies come from the Latin. Ergo...

As for your second point, I think it's pretty clear from both my comments and their context why I'm pointing out those fallacies. That said, in the case of "non sequitur", I was actually referring more to the literary sense of the term — "Where the hell did that come from?" — than the fallacious "does not follow" sense.

devilsavocado · 8 years ago
Those terms are used all the time on hn but not usually italicized, but that's fair, I get your point.

When you respond twice in a row in a comment chain saying that they are using a logical fallacy, and nothing else, you've done nothing to add to the conversation, but are playing the role of Logic Studies 101 Professor. That's probably what they meant by the looking back on on your writing comment.

devilsavocado commented on How Fear and Outrage Are Sold for Profit   medium.com/the-mission/th... · Posted by u/tontonius
rosser · 8 years ago
Can you please clarify the point you're making here?

Because this is a complete non sequitur to me.

devilsavocado · 8 years ago
I have no idea why you are italicizing types of logical fallacies. I can't think of a good reason to do that.

And just pointing out that you believe they are committing a logical fallacy without any explanation is a very lazy discussion technique.

devilsavocado commented on BlackRock's Robot Stock-Pickers Post Record Losses   bloomberg.com/news/articl... · Posted by u/TuringNYC
grondilu · 9 years ago
I've always been puzzled how it could be possible for a machine to predict stock markets, even on an purely hypothetical basis. To me the idea seems to generate the same kind of paradoxes as time travel or oracles.

I mean, imagine there is a machine that is capable of predicting the markets with 100% reliability. Then soon enough, the machine will acquire a reputation and everyone will follow its advice. The machine says "the price of X will go up", everybody would buy X, so the price of X would indeed go up, but this price surge would have only been initiated by the machine statement and we'd have a self-realizing prophecy. Other situations would be more complicated I suppose, but in every case the machine would have to take into account its own prediction, which would be some kind of a mise en abyme.

In the end just like antic oracles, the machine would have to make cryptic predictions that would make sense only with hindsight.

devilsavocado · 9 years ago
Try out your thought experiment again with a machine that can predict markets with 55% reliability, or 50.1% reliability . This more likely reflects reality.

If someone had a machine that could predict the stock markets with 100% reliability, or even 55% reliability, do you think they would make those predictions known to the public? Or would they start a hedge fund and become one of the wealthiest individuals of all time?

devilsavocado commented on Top-down learning path: Machine Learning for Software Engineers   github.com/ZuzooVn/machin... · Posted by u/zuzoovn
devilsavocado · 9 years ago
This is a great resource. I'd add Practical Deep Learning for Coders [0] to the video series list.

[0] http://course.fast.ai/index.html

devilsavocado commented on Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People   idlewords.com/talks/super... · Posted by u/pw
Eliezer · 9 years ago
Or in a more intuitive sense, humans didn't seem to need brains 1000x as large to get one unit of improvement in practical effectiveness over chimpanzee cognition. But yes, this stuff is complicated, hence the paper not being two paragraphs long.
devilsavocado · 9 years ago
Thank you, that is a very intuitive explanation.

You've probably read Scott Aaronson's Why Philosophers Should Care About Computational Complexity? [0]. This seems like the perfect area to apply a lot of the questions he brings up. That's what I was looking for as I skimmed through the paper. Maybe that's what idlewords was talking about as well.

[0] http://www.scottaaronson.com/papers/philos.pdf

devilsavocado commented on Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People   idlewords.com/talks/super... · Posted by u/pw
Eliezer · 9 years ago
I'm getting kind of sick of people who haven't read 2% of the stuff imagining what they think we've never talked about over the last 16 years.

https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf

devilsavocado · 9 years ago
I haven't had time to read the entire thing, so I've skimmed over lots, but there doesn't seem to be much mention of complexity theory in the way I believe idlewords is talking about.

I'm very curious: What happens if the algorithms for general artificial intelligence, and the ability for an AI to improve itself are all NP-Hard problems? Is that covered?

It might be similar to the "intelligence combustion" scenario outlined. But that appears to be a scenario where do not need to be fearing superintelligence.

devilsavocado commented on Revised estimates of the share of national income going to top earners   dissentmagazine.org/blog/... · Posted by u/clumsysmurf
pavlov · 9 years ago
Such a wealth tax existed in Nordic countries in the late 20th century, at least.

Wealth taxes in Sweden and Finland were eliminated around 2005 because capital gains tax was considered more equitable to various wealth classes and more easily administrated. The wealth tax laws had become a nest of loopholes that brought in relatively little income in the end.

It would be interesting to see a new wealth tax designed for the digital era.

devilsavocado · 9 years ago
There are still a few countries with wealth taxes[0]. I'm not sure if they work well or not for these countries. Picketty doesn't spend to much time on the subject of existing wealth taxes. He is more focused on a global wealth tax, which is much more ambitious. Something that would need to be designed for the digital era indeed.

Amusing find from the linked article: Back in 1999 Trump proposed a one time wealth tax of 14.25% for individuals worth more than 10 million.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_tax

devilsavocado commented on Revised estimates of the share of national income going to top earners   dissentmagazine.org/blog/... · Posted by u/clumsysmurf
bluetwo · 9 years ago
The question articles like this never get around to asking is: What would "fair" look like?

The data is never going to be flat. That would mean the top earners and the lowest earners had identical incomes. Call that what you want but that's not a free economy.

devilsavocado · 9 years ago
Picketty's book does at least attempt to address this. He proposes a switch from income tax to wealth tax. He shows that most inequality is a result of the growth of existing wealth (most of which was inherited). Taxing wealth instead of income can help reverse, or at least stop the increasing levels of inequality. A very small percentage of wealth would need to be taxed to accomplish this.
devilsavocado commented on Revised estimates of the share of national income going to top earners   dissentmagazine.org/blog/... · Posted by u/clumsysmurf
readams · 9 years ago
People continue to focus on income inequality and ignore wealth inequality. Income is a terrible way understand inequality and also not a good way to compare how inequality is changing, since the really rich people increase their wealth in ways other than income.

The bizarre focus on income means that we set our sights on a weird slice of upper middle class professionals (doctors, lawyers, etc.) while ignoring totally the real rich people.

devilsavocado · 9 years ago
Picketty definitely does not ignore wealth inequality. Most of his book is devoted to explaining why the return on existing wealth is the most important factor in inequality. He proposes a global tax on wealth, not income, to help combat inequality.

u/devilsavocado

KarmaCake day192November 18, 2015View Original