I think it's just interest rates.
I can easily get 3% per year investing in safe bonds, so I expect at least 3% to put money on any 100% safe bet.
I want to be paid for waiting X months
Readit Newscsantini commented on The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return ericneyman.wordpress.com/... · Posted by u/surprisetalk
csantini commented on US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU bbc.com/news/live/c1dr7vy... · Posted by u/belter
csantini commented on US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU bbc.com/news/live/c1dr7vy... · Posted by u/belter
Do you know how many taxes on many goods European Union has introduced? Was that "empire hubris" as well?
Everyone puts taxes on some sectors. It's economic policy. Trump is not doing economic policy. He's using a simple formula to ideologically reduce trade deficit. No matter the consequences!
Trust the experts: America will be poorer because of these tariffs.
csantini commented on US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU bbc.com/news/live/c1dr7vy... · Posted by u/belter
The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency.
Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we make.
If you no longer want the trade deficit that means payments of fealty by those who trade in dollars, which countries aren't likely to tolerate, or abandoning the USD as a global reserve currency, which would be disastrous, truly disastrous. Our debts would suddenly become existential because inflating our currency to pay for them could result in functionally not being able to import goods required to run our economy. I don't think many truly understand just how disastrous it will be.
This isn't America's liberation day. This is Russia's and China's liberation day. While America was once able to check their power, America is no longer in a position to do so, we will barely be in a position to satisfy our own military's logistics requirements.
This is a decapitation strike (Timothy Snyder: Decapitation Strike -- https://archive.is/1xkxK) on America by our enemies. It is not only a de facto soft blockade of American trade, but it is an attack on the mechanics of American hegemony. Politicians already ask for money instead of votes or actions. That means if foreign governments spend money, they can elect their preferred candidates. America's own government was a result of french support. We institute regime change in other counties, and I see no reason to believe we are immune.
If trade stops occurring in US Dollar, which is a consequence of the stated goal of our current ruling regime, that would be the coup de grace on this country's hegemony. It is the definitive end to it, and the birth of Chinese hegemony.
Ray Dalio's Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order feels prescient: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8
It's typical Empire Hubris: thinking you can get away with anything because you are special.
Trump doesn't really know what he's doing. He surrounded himself with yes-men that know perfectly not to contradict him.
The global Dollar order was built to American advantage. Trump is dismantling it for no reason. If the dollar order crumbles, the US will discover it has much lower productivity.
There is no American exceptionalism: it's just Dollar exceptionalism. No Dollar, no exceptionalism.
In high volatility regimes, ie. stocks with low market cap, the market is far from efficient. Hedge funds are not even looking at stocks with 100M market cap.
There are traders that act in these regimes that beat the market, exactly because they play small.
Anyhow most people would be better of by assuming the market is completely efficient.