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bgroat commented on Programming Deflation   tidyfirst.substack.com/p/... · Posted by u/dvcoolarun
rkozik1989 · 3 months ago
This article is really only useful if LLMs are actually able to close the gap from where they are now to where they want to be in a reasonable amount of time. There are plenty of historical examples of technologies where the last few milestones are nearly impossible to achieve: hypersonic/supersonic travel, nuclear waste disposal, curing cancer, error-free language translation, etc. All of which have had periods of great immediate success, but development/research always gets stuck in the mud (sometimes for decades) because the level complexity to complete the race is exponentially higher than it was at the start.

Not saying you should disregard today's AI advancements, I think some level of preparedness is a necessity, but to go all in on the idea that deep learning will power us to true AGI is a gamble. We've dumped billions of dollars and countless hours of research into developing a cancer cure for decades but we still don't have a cure.

bgroat · 3 months ago
We're 90%... we're almost half way there!
bgroat commented on The mysterious flow of fluid in the brain   quantamagazine.org/the-my... · Posted by u/pseudolus
theGnuMe · 9 months ago
I've felt my brain flush, dunno if anyone else has.
bgroat · 9 months ago
For me it feels more like a rinse.

My brain feels cloudy/covered in junk. Then I rest and can kind of feel all the crap being hosed away

bgroat commented on Fair coins tend to land on the side they started (2023)   researchgate.net/publicat... · Posted by u/seanhunter
bgroat · a year ago
This has been commonly known by magicians for decades. I doubt that any single magician had conducted 350k flips, but I know I personally did ~2,500 to test the effect when I was a kid.

And I'm sure if you got 30 magicians together to pool data we'd have a meta-analysis of about this size but with experiments a century ago

bgroat commented on How one ED mobilized his department during a mass casualty incident (2017)   epmonthly.com/article/not... · Posted by u/CrispyKerosene
bgroat · a year ago
I'm not an Orson Scott Card fan generally, but I LOVED his Shadow Series (the world of Ender's Game from the perspective of Bean).

In one of the books in the Shadow Series Bean explains his leadership style as:

"I will always explain why something is important, and why we're doing it this particular way... The reason for this is that if we ever find ourselves in a situation where I CAN'T give orders you know what I prioritize and how I might think of something... furthermore, if we're in a situation where I CAN give orders but DON'T explain you will understand that it's simply because I do not have time, but presumably have good reasons, and will proceed to immediately execute said orders"

It appears this emergency room operated in a similar capacity

bgroat commented on Friendship and Social Fitness   robkhenderson.com/p/frien... · Posted by u/paulpauper
zokier · a year ago
> It’s unwise to discard these investments or be reluctant to recover them, especially when the cost is a simple message and conversation every now and then.

Hilariously out of touch quote in article that is on a surface level so thoroughly researched. There is nothing simple about "message and conversation every now and then"

The author touches on this themselves:

> I was relieved — I didn’t want to dwell on my present circumstances because it would have highlighted how much our paths have diverged.

bgroat · a year ago
Literally whenever someone crosses my mind I shoot them a text, "Hey zokier, I was thinking about ya! Hope you're well!"

Trivially easy and people treat me like I have social super powers

bgroat commented on The Meaning of Bitcoin   maraoz.com/2024/06/10/bit... · Posted by u/maraoz
yaybitcoin · 2 years ago
Argentina may have serious monetary problems, but does the USD? Do we really need financial innovation to move at the "pace of programmers?" Is "bitcoin" really money when you can't use it to buy anything without converting it to money first?
bgroat · 2 years ago
Not only is it nearly impossible to use anywhere... but a huge component of BTC's mythology is making fun of someone who ACTUALLY spent it as money (Bitcoin Pizza)
bgroat commented on The window for great-grandmothers is closing   memoirsandrambles.substac... · Posted by u/yakkomajuri
Afton · 2 years ago
The upside is that I was a total basket case in my 20s, completely incompetent to be able to raise a child. I'll leave it to my children on how it turned out in my 30s. Generally I'd expect older adults to have done a lot more maturing and increased ability to emotionally regulate, which is a really critical ability when dealing with the 4th day of 3 hours of sleep and a colicky baby (for example).

Also no point. But honestly, if you want people to have kids earlier, you need to make them think that their life won't be bleak if they do.

bgroat · 2 years ago
Everyone's life is completely different, and their choices are their own. It seems you made the right choice for yourself, and I hope your kids agree.

I will say though, I think there's a chicken and egg element in this line of thinking.

A part of my thinks that being childless in twenties provides space that facilitates being a basket-case.

I think that having a child immediately makes most people at least 50% more responsible, and 85%+ within a year.

Again, there's a huge range here for people who: - Never get better - Their 85%+ still isn't really responsible enough.

Unsolicited 2 cents from a guy who had a kid in his twenties

bgroat commented on Intermittent fasting more effective than calorie restriction   pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3... · Posted by u/mfld
jitl · 2 years ago
“More effective” in what capacity? Adherence.

> The mean (SD) reduction in energy intake was -313 (509) kcal/d for TRE, -197 (426) kcal/d for CR, and -16 (439) kcal/d for controls

So — the time restricted eating group reduced calories more than the group that counted calories; but the resulting weight loss has the same cause: reduced calorie intake compared to before.

If there’s a take away here, it’s possibly that adherence to a calorie deficit using a time restricted eating plan is easier than adherence to the same calorie deficit by explicitly tracking calories.

If you can adhere to a calorie deficit through other means, you won’t lose weight faster by adding intermittent fasting while maintaining the same calorie intake.

bgroat · 2 years ago
I think for a lot of people (me included), the primary advantage is in ease of measurement.

It's hard to count calories accurately.

It's very easy to look at the clock and determine if it's between 1300-1900 hours

bgroat commented on About half of Bandcamp employees have been laid off   theverge.com/2023/10/16/2... · Posted by u/donohoe
danjac · 2 years ago
Legally perhaps, but firing people particularly en mass is hard to do right, unless you don't care and you are just prepping for a fire sale.

You can lose people who might be key contributors. You can destroy morale in the rest of the company. Everyone else knows they might be next, so they will leave first chance they get. Finally, it signals to the market you are in trouble (hence why a lot of companies are doing it now: better to be just one more company doing layoffs when everyone else is doing it).

bgroat · 2 years ago
This was the point that founder friend was making.

It's hard to look someone in the eye and say they're done

bgroat commented on About half of Bandcamp employees have been laid off   theverge.com/2023/10/16/2... · Posted by u/donohoe
iainctduncan · 2 years ago
Background, I work in diligence for software aquisitions.

There are a lot of assumptions on this thread. I don't know the answers in this case (not sure if anyone does?) but I think it is naive to assume that Bandcamp was wise to be employing all these people. While acquisitions tanking a company with stupid decisions are super common, it's also super common for companies who are trying to look like they are growing (for future funding or acquisitions) to have way too much staff (and thus, high a burn rate) instead of running a sensible, profitable business. It is not necessarily a good thing that they have tons of employees - sometimes it's entirely motivated by putting lipstick on a pig in order to look like a runaway growth success thing.

Songtradr is in the music infrastructure business. I think it's quite possible they are cleaning house to make Bandcamp a more viable business that is actually focused on their core business. Doesn't seem impossible to me that Bandcamp was way off base trying to make too much written content when really, it's about selling music.

But I'm spitballing here, anyone know more about whether Bandcamp was bloated?

bgroat · 2 years ago
A founder friend confided in me years ago, "It is MUCH easier to raise more money than it is to fire someone... I just keep raising and hiring and eventually everything will get done"

No surprise that this approach was very much a "Low-Rates Phenomenon"

u/bgroat

KarmaCake day1335March 22, 2016
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