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anonymid commented on Why I don't think AGI is imminent   dlants.me/agi-not-imminen... · Posted by u/anonymid
joquarky · a month ago
You seem to have a lot of theoretical knowledge on this, but have you tried Claude or codex in the past month or two?

Hands on experience is better than reading articles.

I've been coding for 40 years and after a few months getting familiar with these tools, this feels really big. Like how the internet felt in 1994.

anonymid · 25 days ago
I've been developing an ai coding harness https://github.com/dlants/magenta.nvim for over a year now, and I use it (and cursor and claude code) daily at work.

Fun observation - almost every coding harness (claude code, cursor, codex) uses a find/replace tool as the primary way of interacting with code. This requires the agent to fully type out the code it's trying to edit, including several lines of context around the edit. This is really inefficient, token wise! Why does it work this way? Because the LLMs are really bad at counting lines, or using other ways of describing a unique location in the file.

I've experimented with providing a more robust dsl for text manipulation https://github.com/dlants/magenta.nvim/blob/main/node/tools/... , and I do think it's an improvement over just straight search/replace, but the agents do tend to struggle a lot - editing the wrong line, messing up the selection state, etc... which is probably why the major players haven't adopted something like this yet.

So I feel pretty confident in my assessment of where these models are at!

And also, I fully believe it's big. It's a huge deal! My work is unrecognizable from what it was even 2 years ago. But that's an impact / productivity argument, not an argument about intelligence. Modern programming languages, IDEs, spreadsheets, etc... also made a fundamental shift in what being a software engineer was like, but they were not generally intelligent.

anonymid commented on Why I don't think AGI is imminent   dlants.me/agi-not-imminen... · Posted by u/anonymid
rfv6723 · a month ago
The skepticism surrounding AGI often feels like an attempt to judge a car by its inability to eat grass. We treat "cognitive primitives" like object constancy and causality as if they are mystical, hardwired biological modules, but they are essentially just high-dimensional labels for invariant relationships within a physical manifold. Object constancy is not a pre-installed software patch; it is the emergent realization of spatial-temporal symmetry. Likewise, causality is nothing more than the naming of a persistent, high-weight correlation between events. When a system can synthesize enough data at a high enough dimension, these so-called "foundational" laws dissolve into simple statistical invariants. There is no "causality" module in the brain, only a massive correlation engine that has been fine-tuned by evolution to prioritize specific patterns for survival.

The critique that Transformers are limited by their "one-shot" feed-forward nature also misses the point of their architectural efficiency. Human brains rely on recurrence and internal feedback loops largely as a workaround for our embarrassingly small working memory—we can barely juggle ten concepts at once without a pen and paper. AI doesn't need to mimic our slow, vibrating neural signals when its global attention can process a massive, parallelized workspace in a single pass. This "all-at-once" calculation of relationships is fundamentally more powerful than the biological need to loop signals until they stabilize into a "thought."

Furthermore, the obsession with "fragility"—where a model solves quantum mechanics but fails a child’s riddle—is a red herring. Humans aren't nearly as "general" as we tell ourselves; we are also pattern-matchers prone to optical illusions and simple logic traps, regardless of our IQ. Demanding that AI replicate the specific evolutionary path of a human child is a form of biological narcissism. If a machine can out-calculate us across a hundred variables where we can only handle five, its "non-human" way of knowing is a feature, not a bug. Functional replacement has never required biological mimicry; the jet engine didn't need to flap its wings to redefine flight.

anonymid · a month ago
Hey, thanks for responding. You're a very evocative writer!

I do want to push back on some things:

> We treat "cognitive primitives" like object constancy and causality as if they are mystical, hardwired biological modules, but they are essentially just

I don't feel like I treated them as mystical - I cite several studies that define what they are and correlate them to certain structures in the brain that have developed millennia ago. I agree that ultimately they are "just" fitting to patterns in data, but the patterns they fit are really useful, and were fundamental to human intelligence.

My point is that these cognitive primitives are very much useful for reasoning, and especially the sort of reasoning that would allow us to call an intelligence general in any meaningful way.

> This "all-at-once" calculation of relationships is fundamentally more powerful than the biological need to loop signals until they stabilize into a "thought."

The argument I cite is from complexity theory. It's proof that feed-forward networks are mathematically incapable of representing certain kinds of algorithms.

> Furthermore, the obsession with "fragility"—where a model solves quantum mechanics but fails a child’s riddle—is a red herring.

AGI can solve quantum mechanics problems, but verifying that those solutions are correct still (currently) falls to humans. For the time being, we are the only ones who possess the robustness of reasoning we can rely on, and it is exactly because of this that fragility matters!

anonymid commented on Why I don't think AGI is imminent   dlants.me/agi-not-imminen... · Posted by u/anonymid
NiloCK · a month ago
> The transformer architectures powering current LLMs are strictly feed-forward.

This is true in a specific contextual sense (each token that an LLM produces is from a feed-forward pass). But untrue for more than a year with reasoning models, who feed their produced tokens back as inputs, and whose tuning effectively rewards it for doing this skillfully.

Heck, it was untrue before that as well, any time an LLM responded with more than one token.

> A [March] 2025 survey by the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), surveying 475 AI researchers, found that 76% believe scaling up current AI approaches to achieve AGI is "unlikely" or "very unlikely" to succeed.

I dunno. This survey publication was from nearly a year ago, so the survey itself is probably more than a year old. That puts us at Sonnet 3.7. The gap between that and present day is tremendous.

I am not skilled enough to say this tactfully, but: expert opinions can be the slowest to update on the news that their specific domain may have, in hindsight, have been the wrong horse. It's the quote about it being difficult to believe something that your income requires to be false, but instead of income it can be your whole legacy or self concept. Way worse.

> My take is that research taste is going to rely heavily on the short-duration cognitive primitives that the ARC highlights but the METR metric does not capture.

I don't have an opinion on this, but I'd like to hear more about this take.

anonymid · a month ago
Thanks for reading, and I really appreciate your comments!

> who feed their produced tokens back as inputs, and whose tuning effectively rewards it for doing this skillfully

Ah, this is a great point, and not something that I considered. I agree that the token feedback does change the complexity, and it seems that there's even a paper by the same authors about this very thing! https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.07923

I'll have to think on how that changes things. I think it does take the wind out of the architecture argument as it's currently stated, or at least makes it a lot more challenging. I'll consider myself a victim of media hype on this, as I was pretty sold on this line of argument after reading this article https://www.wired.com/story/ai-agents-math-doesnt-add-up/ and the paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.07505 ... who brush this off with:

>Can the additional think tokens provide the necessary complexity to correctly solve a problem of higher complexity? We don't believe so, for two fundamental reasons: one that the base operation in these reasoning LLMs still carries the complexity discussed above, and the computation needed to correctly carry out that very step can be one of a higher complexity (ref our examples above), and secondly, the token budget for reasoning steps is far smaller than what would be necessary to carry out many complex tasks.

In hindsight, this doesn't really address the challenge.

My immediate next thought is - even solutions up to P can be represented within the model / CoT, do we actually feel like we are moving towards generalized solutions, or that the solution space is navigable through reinforcement learning? I'm genuinely not sure about where I stand on this.

> I don't have an opinion on this, but I'd like to hear more about this take.

I'll think about it and write some more on this.

anonymid commented on We cut our Mongo DB costs by 90% by moving to Hetzner   prosopo.io/blog/we-cut-ou... · Posted by u/arbol
anonymid · 4 months ago
$2700/mo is about 1/3 of an engineers' salary (cost to the business of a mid-level engineer in the UK)...

But, there's the time to set all of this up (which admittedly is a one-time investment and would amortize).

And there's the risk of having made a mistake in your backups or recovery system (Will you exercise it? Will you continue to regularly exercise it?).

And they're a 3-person team... is it really worth your limited time/capacity to do this, rather than do something that's likely to attract $3k/mo of new business?

If the folks who wrote the blog see this, please share how much time (how many devs, how many weeks) this took to set up, and how the ongoing maintenance burden shapes up.

anonymid commented on Claude Code 2.0   npmjs.com/package/@anthro... · Posted by u/polyrand
anonymid · 5 months ago
For folks who use neovim, there's always https://github.com/dlants/magenta.nvim , which is just as good as claude code in my (very biased) opinion.
anonymid commented on Claude Code IDE integration for Emacs   github.com/manzaltu/claud... · Posted by u/kgwgk
brotherjerky · 7 months ago
Anyone have good results with something similar for Neovim?
anonymid · 7 months ago
magenta nvim
anonymid commented on Claude Code IDE integration for Emacs   github.com/manzaltu/claud... · Posted by u/kgwgk
cristea · 7 months ago
Pretty cool! I love that these battle proven editors (emacs and (n)vim) seem to follow along with new technology, even though one might think overwise given their age.

I hope this comes to vim as well!

anonymid · 7 months ago
magenta nvim implements a really nice integration of coding agents.

u/anonymid

KarmaCake day132February 1, 2016
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