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angelzen commented on More cases of Omicron observed in vaccinated people vs. unvaccinated people   twitter.com/holmenkollin/... · Posted by u/wsc981
angelzen · 4 years ago
Interesting.

* 30.12.2021 RKI Wochenbericht reads "1.097 Patientinnen und Patienten waren ungeimpft, 4.020 waren vollständig geimpft, von diesen wurde für 1.137 eine Auffrischimpfung angegeben."

* 23.12.2021 RKI Wockenbericht reads "186 Patientinnen und Patienten waren ungeimpft, 924 waren vollständig geimpft, von diesen wurde für 161 eine Auffrischimpfung angegeben".

* The OA screenshots a line that reads "186 Patientinnen und Patienten waren ungeimpft, 4.020 waren vollständig geimpft, von diesen wurde für 1.137 eine Auffrischimpfung angegeben." Either they doctored the data, or the 30.12.2021 RKI Wochenbericht perhaps contained an error that was since corrected and the OA panicked seeing the initial version?

One more thing. Using omicron data from 30.12.2021 RKI Wochenbericht and vaccination data from https://impfdashboard.de/en, the omicron incidence rates don't look too good. This is difficult to do correctly in absence of data explicitly broken down by age because <18yo have significantly smaller vaccination rates (thus more "unvaccinated" at virtually no risk) compared to the adult population, but even so:

           total  unvax    vax  2-vax  3-vax
    pop    83.2M  21.5M  61.7M  26.9M  32.3M
    cases   5117   1097   4020   2883   1137
    /100k    6.1    5.1    6.5   10.7    3.5

angelzen · 4 years ago
Update: the error belongs, indeed, to the RKI crew: https://twitter.com/Tim_Roehn/status/1477975486764572675

Via Google translate: "Update: The RKI made a significant change in the weekly report 4 days after publication (see below). Now there are 1097 instead of 186 unvaccinated people, so the proportion of those who have been vaccinated is significantly lower. // @world"

Edit: Update of the OA: https://twitter.com/holmenkollin/status/1477970997638676483

angelzen commented on More cases of Omicron observed in vaccinated people vs. unvaccinated people   twitter.com/holmenkollin/... · Posted by u/wsc981
foothebar · 4 years ago
The Twitter account this links to does not use real numbers – it is pure fake.

* the daily cases report¹ of the RKI shows strictly raising cases of Omicron, but as of today (03.01.2022) a maximum of 19.9 (per 100k inhabitants, total cases in the last reported week: 274, that is 10% of all Covid-19 cases) – the linked Twitter message shows a completely wrong number "41"

* the weekly report² of the RKI does not mention general Omicron rates of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated at all, neither does any of the from there linked resources. (The in the Twitter message marked text shows some numbers, but these are only a partial excerpt of all cases over all time, where for many cases – 35% – no status info exists at all. They can not be used for calculating what the author proposes.)

* even if you could use that excerpt; the numbers in the graphic the author created, do not even add up to be valid among each other (e.g. "fully (2 or 3 dose)" is smaller than "2 dose"), and do not even reflect the proportion of the wanna-be source (the marked text), which e.g. would show there would be less re-infected state than unvaccinated – again: still the marked text is no usable source at all.

So this is pure fake news from the liar @holmenkollin…

Also the other counterfeited graphs, by another liar @10p8atriot, shown further below in the post, do really suck in 'counterfeiting quality', e.g. more than halving the unvaccinated cases, and adding some 1-vaccinations from April to June which do not at all exist in the data, which can be easily checked at the given source: https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19/resource/9b623a64-f7df-... whereof the real graph looks like this: https://ibb.co/f2SjmwP

No idea how these fakers get away with this all the time – must be something quasi-religious or so, at their fanbase.

––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

[1] daily cases report of the RKI: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...

[2] weekly report of the RKI, 30.12.2021: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...

angelzen · 4 years ago
Interesting.

* 30.12.2021 RKI Wochenbericht reads "1.097 Patientinnen und Patienten waren ungeimpft, 4.020 waren vollständig geimpft, von diesen wurde für 1.137 eine Auffrischimpfung angegeben."

* 23.12.2021 RKI Wockenbericht reads "186 Patientinnen und Patienten waren ungeimpft, 924 waren vollständig geimpft, von diesen wurde für 161 eine Auffrischimpfung angegeben".

* The OA screenshots a line that reads "186 Patientinnen und Patienten waren ungeimpft, 4.020 waren vollständig geimpft, von diesen wurde für 1.137 eine Auffrischimpfung angegeben." Either they doctored the data, or the 30.12.2021 RKI Wochenbericht perhaps contained an error that was since corrected and the OA panicked seeing the initial version?

One more thing. Using omicron data from 30.12.2021 RKI Wochenbericht and vaccination data from https://impfdashboard.de/en, the omicron incidence rates don't look too good. This is difficult to do correctly in absence of data explicitly broken down by age because <18yo have significantly smaller vaccination rates (thus more "unvaccinated" at virtually no risk) compared to the adult population, but even so:

           total  unvax    vax  2-vax  3-vax
    pop    83.2M  21.5M  61.7M  26.9M  32.3M
    cases   5117   1097   4020   2883   1137
    /100k    6.1    5.1    6.5   10.7    3.5

angelzen commented on More cases of Omicron observed in vaccinated people vs. unvaccinated people   twitter.com/holmenkollin/... · Posted by u/wsc981
darthrupert · 4 years ago
Does this figure ignore the fact that most people are fully vaccinated?
angelzen · 4 years ago
Similar figures from Denmark, reported as rates and broke down by age groups. Waiting for severe omicron cases stats, which may lag for a few weeks. We are in for an interesting winter...

https://covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsinfektioner

https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-o...

Deleted Comment

angelzen commented on Book Review: “Viral” by Alina Chan and Matt Ridley   scottaaronson.blog/?p=618... · Posted by u/feross
beefield · 4 years ago
> It’s important to have a meta conversation because the media and social media were actively hindering discussion (censoring) that examined the lab leak hypothesis.

> One can’t have an honest investigation if one major avenue is shut down.

The problem is that to my understanding the lab-leak discussion was (and still somewhat is) dominated by raving mad conspiracy lunatics[1] or instances trying to inflict racism. I fully admit that someone should seriously research that hypothesis (I fully assume there are some serious folks doing just that), but it is also difficult to blame media trying to keep the raving mad in check, even if some sensible arguments are thrown with the bathwater. (Besides, I am not sure if public discussion has anything substantial to add before there is some conclusion on the matter)

[1] As this is somewhat heated discussion, I think I need to emphasize that I definitely do not imply that all who doubt lab-leak are raving mad. If you think I do, please breathe and read again.

angelzen · 4 years ago
In a free society the job of the media is to report the facts, not to "keep the raving mad in check".
angelzen commented on Twitter Permanently Suspends Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Account   nytimes.com/2022/01/02/te... · Posted by u/mistersquid
tjr225 · 4 years ago
Marjorie Taylor Greene is entitled to create her own Twitter. Not to use someone else’s Twitter.
angelzen · 4 years ago
This leads to 2 twitters, one for each side of the political aisle. Filter bubbles enabled by social media are already bad enough, a complete fracture of the public space along political lines is a distinctly dangerous idea.
angelzen commented on Twitter Permanently Suspends Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Account   nytimes.com/2022/01/02/te... · Posted by u/mistersquid
nojito · 4 years ago
She made repetitive tweets that Omicron proves that vaccines don't work.
angelzen · 4 years ago
Since you are not posting your sources, it's hard to tell what claims of Marjorie Taylor Greene you are referring to. I recently stumbled upon a site that reports on covid data from Denmark. The rate of Omicron infection in both vaccinated and unvaccinated populations >15yo is the same. This corroborates with a recent DHH post surfacing similar Denmark data. There is a distinct uncomfortable possibility that the vaccines targeting a 2 year old variant are, indeed, ineffective as a measure to limit the spread of Omicron. Unfortunately, I can't corroborate with US data because CDC is obstinate in not publishing covid data with a breakdown by date/age/vaccination status/virus variant.

Based in prior variant data, it is likely the vaccines do work to prevent severe omicron cases. Feel free to clarify what is it that the vaccines work for, and which of Marjorie Taylor Greene tweets fell afoul of that.

PS. This post is in no way an endorsement of Marjorie Taylor Greene political activities, of which I know very little other than her being a Republican Congresswoman.

https://covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsinfektioner

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29765351

https://world.hey.com/dhh/should-you-vaccinate-your-kids-169...

angelzen commented on Why are we vaccinating children against Covid-19?   sciencedirect.com/science... · Posted by u/ycnews
yucky · 4 years ago
What are your thoughts on the new data released by Ontario[1]?

[1]https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data?fbclid=IwAR2pRUq9GN9EEoDTm0... (see graph 3 in particular)

angelzen · 4 years ago
(2nd attempt, realized the outlier spike is in "unvaccinated and 80+" category). Utter garbage data. Using the breakdown by age we note a huge outlier spike in unvaccinated cases in the 80+ age group, 800/100k vs. 5-10/100k. All other age groups show a decline in case rates for both vaccinated and unvaccinated, with a vaccinated case rate << unvaccinated case rate (5x-10x). I see no way to add up the breakdown by age case rate numbers into total case rate numbers showing vaccinated case rate taking over unvaccinated case rate.

Couple of related notes:

* Covid statistics without a breakdown by age / date / vaccination status are garbage. Possibly BMI and/or immunosuppressed status should also be added to the mix. The authorities failure to publish this data breakdown 2 years into the pandemic is going beyond incompetence.

* Focusing on "cases" beyond a coarse "going up or going down" is largely useless. Observed "cases" are more likely to indicate test penetration than actual case numbers, and test penetration may significantly vary between age groups, institutionalization settings, etc.

Deleted Comment

angelzen commented on Germany shuts down half of its remaining nuclear plants   thehindu.com/news/interna... · Posted by u/rustoo
angelzen · 4 years ago
Not a big fan of nuclear because of security and waste disposal issues, but quoting 3 accidents over a span of 60 years as a reason for a blanket ban on a whole class of energy production technologies is hyper safetyism.

u/angelzen

KarmaCake day1475August 7, 2021View Original