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ZachPruckowski commented on FDIC Establishes Signature Bridge Bank, N.A., As Successor to Signature Bank   fdic.gov/news/press-relea... · Posted by u/clessg
twblalock · 3 years ago
> One part of the bailout is depositors over $250k getting a new FDIC guarantee.

Not really. It's not like the FDIC would normally give everyone $250k and then light the bank's remaining money on fire. If there is money left over after depositors all get their $250k, the depositors have a claim on that money too.

Thought experiment: Consider a bank with only one customer. Let's say that customer had a million dollars in an account. The bank fails. That customer gets $250k. The FDIC finds out that another half a million is left over. The customer gets that too. The shareholders get shafted because they don't get anything because the depositors have precedence over the shareholders. Shareholders are the last ones to get paid, if there is anything left.

This is not a bailout. It's the way things normally work.

ZachPruckowski · 3 years ago
Looking at your thought experiment, the difference is whether that customer gets $500K (all of the bank's assets are sold to make him whole[1]) or $1M - all the banks assets are sold, and also he gets another $500K from the FDIC.

[1] - the $250K insurance is normally only supposed to apply if there are insufficient assets to cover it. Unless I'm misunderstanding your wording and the bank in the thought experiment has $750K in assets.

ZachPruckowski commented on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC   home.treasury.gov/news/pr... · Posted by u/FormerBandmate
ZachPruckowski · 3 years ago
> "Any losses to the Deposit Insurance Fund to support uninsured depositors will be recovered by a special assessment on banks, as required by law."

Very curious to see who ends up paying this special assessment. Are we all going to pay in lower deposit/investment interest from banks? Are bank shareholders/profits gonna eat it?

ZachPruckowski commented on Yellen says government will help SVB depositors but rules out bailout   ft.com/content/6a77d81b-7... · Posted by u/guiambros
mlyle · 3 years ago
> Plenty of startups fit that bill and will nonetheless be impacted by SVB’s failure

Startups are going to get most of their deposits back-- perhaps all if there's an acquisition. If SVB is not acquired, I hope the FDIC is able to get a substantial dividend quickly so that they can keep operating and that everyone works to keep disruption low.

But I don't think the federal government needs to make depositors whole beyond the insurance limits. I think that sets its own bad precedent. Maybe some startups are going to lose 5-40% of their cash because of their treasury management choices. That is OK.

The times when I was a founder of a startup with a substantial cash balance--- we hedged the bank risk. There was a cost to it. I don't think those costs should be socialized.

ZachPruckowski · 3 years ago
> I hope the FDIC is able to get a substantial dividend quickly so that they can keep operating and that everyone works to keep disruption low

The FDIC has publicly said there will be an advance dividend and I don't see why it wouldn't be substantial, given that there's going to be a LOT of recovery unless SVB has big non-public problems.

ZachPruckowski commented on SVB Used Former McCarthy Staffers to Weaken Regulations, Lobby FDIC   theintercept.com/2023/03/... · Posted by u/cratermoon
InTheArena · 3 years ago
The problem is is that the amount of debt is percentage of GDP, and therefore the interest rates that we need to pay are significantly higher now. This kind of analysis is hopelessly naïve without taking into account overall macro situation.
ZachPruckowski · 3 years ago
I mean, yeah, that's ultimately a potential problem for the federal budget. But that's not what tripped up SVB - long-term Treasury prices declined because higher interest rates made short-term Treasuries more attractive than long-term ones.
ZachPruckowski commented on SVB Used Former McCarthy Staffers to Weaken Regulations, Lobby FDIC   theintercept.com/2023/03/... · Posted by u/cratermoon
joemazerino · 3 years ago
Sure SVB used lobbyists but that's not the crux of the issue. The issue is our governments tax and spend policies are driving up rates to an unsustainable amount. SVB is totally at fault, don't get me wrong, but this is the house of cards we have built.
ZachPruckowski · 3 years ago
Interest rates are where they were in the mid/late 90s (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS). The idea that these interest rates are unsustainable/dangerous is just silly. If anything, the 2009-2016 and 2020-2021 periods at an interest rate of 0% are the anomalies.
ZachPruckowski commented on Urgent: Sign the petition now   ycombinator.com/blog/urge... · Posted by u/version_five
Mystery-Machine · 3 years ago
$250k is nothing for a company. It's 1 engineer salary. And, no, it's not $1k. It's more like $10k-$20k per month, plus all the overhead of having your money in multiple bank accounts and shuffling it all around just to never hit the $250k limit.

Just my 2 cents on this strawman part of discussion.

ZachPruckowski · 3 years ago
I mean, completely reducing this risk to 0 is probably expensive and annoying, yes. But you could halve the risk by splitting your money into just two bank accounts, and reduce it further by keeping medium/long-term savings in short-duration no-coupon T-Bills or something.
ZachPruckowski commented on Urgent: Sign the petition now   ycombinator.com/blog/urge... · Posted by u/version_five
garry · 3 years ago
This isn't some sort of complex bid call option strategy. This is a checking account, and one choice out of many that founders make regularly.

To my knowledge SVB was never required, and startups always had choice.

ZachPruckowski · 3 years ago
> "This isn't some sort of complex bid call option strategy"

Exactly. And "don't put all your eggs in one uninsured basket" is the exact sort of 101-level business advice I'd expect the experienced hands at YC or any Angel investor to provide pretty routinely.

ZachPruckowski commented on Urgent: Sign the petition now   ycombinator.com/blog/urge... · Posted by u/version_five
muzz · 3 years ago
Is your goal to eliminate risk, or to mitigate it?

If they had deposited that 3B in, say two banks rather than one, they'd have 1.5B in that other bank

ZachPruckowski · 3 years ago
They actually had like $12B split across 5 or 6 banks. But yeah, they definitely could've split it better. "No more than $1B per bank" seems like an easy rule, and even maxing at $500M could be doable.
ZachPruckowski commented on Urgent: Sign the petition now   ycombinator.com/blog/urge... · Posted by u/version_five
jimnotgym · 3 years ago
Indeed I have read countless times on hn that it would be very risky to keep more than the insured amount in a bank.

Sounds like YC should invest more in mentoring their portfolio companies to manage their treasury correctly.

ZachPruckowski · 3 years ago
Well and it's not just that they had money over the insured amount in a bank. It's that they had ALL of their money in ONE bank. If they had $500K in three different banks instead of $1.5M in one bank, there would still be a risk, but it would be that they'd lose $250K if any of those three banks failed, not that they'd lose $1.25M if one particular bank failed.

(And obviously actual losses are gonna be like 20% here, not 100%, but you get the picture).

ZachPruckowski commented on No, you couldn't have made more money than the Twitter hacker   fortenf.org/e/security/20... · Posted by u/fortenforge
Mojah · 5 years ago
One point I don't see made often: in order to short or long any market, you need _initial_ capital too. This whole "ask 1 BTC to get 2 BTC" requires 0 initial upfront costs from the attacker.

It's a win/win situation, they can't lose. They've invested nothing in their scam to begin with.

ZachPruckowski · 5 years ago
Not just any initial capital, clean US dollars in a brokerage account under somebody's real name. You can't use BTC or rubles or drug money or whatever.

u/ZachPruckowski

KarmaCake day1432July 29, 2008View Original