We won't know any actionable detail till about 1 hour before it arrives at Earth. That's when interplanetary coronal mass ejections actually have their magnetic field orientation and intensity measured by ACE and other satellites far out at the L1 lagrange point: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-swepam-24-hour...
If you see the red line on this plot^, the interplanetary magnetic field, be more than -10 nanotesla for about 4 hours then there's a good chance of lower than normal latitude aurora. Negative means the magnetic field is pointing downwards out of the ecliptic plane of the solar system and this is the most energetically favorable orientation for reconnecting CME magnetic field lines with Earth's magnetic field lines and letting solar particles/energy in.
It can be 20nT positive (upwards) magnetic field with intense density and high velocity but still be a non-event aurora-wise just because energy is delivered to the Earth's ring currents at 10x slower rate than if it's pointing downwards.
None of the WSA-ENLIL or related predictive models take into consideration the magnetic field orientation of iCMEs because it's really hard to know from remote observations. They can be thought of as warnings to pay attention to the ACE L1 measurements.
Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning
11.11.2025 19:25 (PJM times are Eastern Standard).
PJM-RTO
A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued for 19:25 on 11.11.2025 through 04:00 on 11.12.2025 . A GMD warning of K7 or greater is in effect for this period.
This is only a warning. There are no listed actions being taken. When you see Geomagnetic Disturbance Action, not just Warning, there's a problem. That happened most recently on June 1, 2025.
Extra people are probably on standby all night in case something happens.
CAISO: Nothing.
ERCOT: Nothing.
Hydro-Québec: Multiple snow-related outages near Montreal and some other locations.
Background info from the last time HN got wound up about this.[1]
So then "Montreal and some other locations" probably had the best views of any densely populated areas to watch the Aurora: When power is out, light pollution is no longer a problem!
Look at the pictures from 3AM onwards on the 12 of November: you'll have a nice overview of how the aurora looked like from Switzerland (it's a time sensitive app and they certainly don't keep the pictures forever).
The curvature of the Earth can be deducted from those photos on the map! It is clear to see the aurora completely above the horizon in the Northern Swiss photos, and straddling the horizon in the photos from the south.
https://Spaceweather.com has a link to some photos taken in El Salvador at 13N Lat. Last night was a great show for sure.
I enjoyed it for about 5 hours out here west of DFW. I hope the actual X5.1 event due to arrive in the next 3-5 hours will persist into the evening so I get another show.
I saw this in the Denver area in Colorado, US an hour and a half ago. I looked up and couldn’t believe the sky was red. Took me a while to realize it was the aurora borealis. Very cool!
Reports of seeing the aurora right now across North America down to the US/Mexico border. If that describes you and you're not under cloud cover (like I unfortunately am) I'd recommend going outside and finding somewhere dark with a clear view north.
Cell phone cameras see it better than people for whatever reason, so looking at it through your phone is an option.
I know there are a lot of comments from people saying they’ve seen it, but as I understand it this solar flare won’t hit until 16h UTC, or about 12 hours from now, and there are two weaker flares hitting about now that are currently visible? Is that understanding correct?
Readit News
If you see the red line on this plot^, the interplanetary magnetic field, be more than -10 nanotesla for about 4 hours then there's a good chance of lower than normal latitude aurora. Negative means the magnetic field is pointing downwards out of the ecliptic plane of the solar system and this is the most energetically favorable orientation for reconnecting CME magnetic field lines with Earth's magnetic field lines and letting solar particles/energy in.
It can be 20nT positive (upwards) magnetic field with intense density and high velocity but still be a non-event aurora-wise just because energy is delivered to the Earth's ring currents at 10x slower rate than if it's pointing downwards.
None of the WSA-ENLIL or related predictive models take into consideration the magnetic field orientation of iCMEs because it's really hard to know from remote observations. They can be thought of as warnings to pay attention to the ACE L1 measurements.
Have you considered writing something longer on the subject? Or have you done so, and would you mind sharing links?
PJM:
A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued for 19:25 on 11.11.2025 through 04:00 on 11.12.2025 . A GMD warning of K7 or greater is in effect for this period.This is only a warning. There are no listed actions being taken. When you see Geomagnetic Disturbance Action, not just Warning, there's a problem. That happened most recently on June 1, 2025. Extra people are probably on standby all night in case something happens.
CAISO: Nothing.
ERCOT: Nothing.
Hydro-Québec: Multiple snow-related outages near Montreal and some other locations.
Background info from the last time HN got wound up about this.[1]
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44152154
https://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/services-et-publications/ap...
Look at the pictures from 3AM onwards on the 12 of November: you'll have a nice overview of how the aurora looked like from Switzerland (it's a time sensitive app and they certainly don't keep the pictures forever).
I enjoyed it for about 5 hours out here west of DFW. I hope the actual X5.1 event due to arrive in the next 3-5 hours will persist into the evening so I get another show.
[1] https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/auroral...
https://imgur.com/gallery/northern-lights-denver-zPF7PJC
Deleted Comment
Cell phone cameras see it better than people for whatever reason, so looking at it through your phone is an option.
Request for "very low latitude" pictures from a researcher here: https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3m5...
Deleted Comment
Deleted Comment