https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/world/asia/india-pakistan-attacks.html (https://archive.ph/Bph7S)
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-05-06/india-strikes-pakistan-after-kashmir-attack (https://archive.ph/eypzA)
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwyneele13qt
This does not make sense. When France attacked Daesh in 2015 after the terrorist attacks in Paris or when the US attacked Afghanistan after 9/11, the objective wasn't to target the exact people who carried out the attacks, but the organization behind the attacks. People can always be found as long as the organization remains.
The goal of the attacks would be to make any future terrorist attack an expensive option for the Pakistani military as opposed to something which can be done routinely. There was a sharp drop in the terrorist attacks in Kashmir after the 2019 confrontation.
The mission in Afghanistan was very much to find Bin Laden. It was changed after he escaped.
2) The putative organization is in Pakistan, and likely supported by the military.
The biggest threat India is doing (IMO) is threatening the water supply. That is getting everyone in Pakistan’s attention.
These strikes are more about managing the local political situation in India, which requires some degree of obvious violent retribution.
There were fewer terrorist attacks, certainly. I'm sure the Indian government would like to believe that the 2019 strike had an effect, but far more likely causes are
- Money. Pakistan's economy has stagnated and the country has lurched from one IMF bailout to the next (2019, 2023, 2024). It got so bad at one point that politicians were asking people to drink less tea so they could conserve foreign currency.
- Covid. Affected everything, but certainly harder to think about waging conflict when such a massive problem is affecting the country.
- Internal political instability, especially when Imran Khan took on the military and lost. The military was actually in danger of losing their primacy for the first time in decades.
- Conflict with the Taliban and Pakistani Taliban. The ISI had nurtured the Taliban to be tame pets and it turned out not to be the case. Crushing these was the highest priority, not least because it made their policy of nurturing terrorists look idiotic.
All of these factors meant Pakistan wasn't and isn't in the best shape to wage war overtly or covertly with India. India's economy has continued to grow, in contrast to Pakistan. The official Indian policy of "benign neglect" towards Pakistan appeared to work well.
I'm sure these attacks will be spun as a success in the future. Safe to say a Bollywood movie dramatising the events is already in the works. But Pakistan's own economic and political problems are far more likely to influence its decisions to engage in this sort of behaviour.
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They have nukes. They don't need to be rich to do massive damage. Sure doing so would have terrible consequences, but cooler heads sometimes don't prevail. Or only prevail after much suffering and pain.
I always wonder at the people who have this idea that states are going to use nukes on a whim. The taboo against the use of nukes is very strong, so strong that I believe nuclear armed nations would rather wage conventional warfare even at great cost, and consider nukes only in the extreme situation where the very survival of the state is seriously threatened (and even then I'm doubtful nukes would be used). The only other realistic situation where nukes are used is in an accidental scenario.
That is why conventional military strength is still very much important in the world now. The Europeans are finding this out a bit late.
It's also why Putin is a great actor and bluffer. Trust me, he's the last person who would think of using nukes, despite appearances to the contrary. Now, if he were to somehow use nukes on an actual populated area, I believe the western powers would NOT use nukes in retaliation, so it seems like he would have a found a way out of MAD. But, the conventional response (likely a containment rather than an attack on Russia, e.g., a no fly zone and destruction of military assets, with the threat of nuclear retaliation backing it up) would be so strong that the Russia would be effectively neutralized. If they persist in nuking, then all bets are off, WW3 begins, and civilization could end.
That's why there was no sense for Ukraine to keep nukes. They should have kept strategic bombers, though.
Pakistan has nothing to lose. So there are lots of incentives for Pakistan army to go rogue.
Military action is only going to lead to India being less willing to give them an even supply. They are totally dependent on keeping India happy, and now of course, they've failed to do that by allowing these recent murders.
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I also thought the Ukraine war wasn't "really" going to happen. Humans will human.
I observe from time to time that Moscow appears to be under fire from the occasional US-sponsored attack for example. So far, so good. Most of the time things don't go terribly wrong, just the worst case scenarios here are quite grim. The India-Pakistan situation is probably a bit safer because anything catastrophic is likely to just kill millions/billions of people in India and Pakistan instead of an entire hemisphere of carnage.
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Proxy war between U.S. and China. We’re moving the naval assets that were bombing the Houthis. India seizing Pakistan-administered Kashmir cuts Islamabad off from China.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/world/asia/india-pakistan... (https://archive.ph/Bph7S)
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-c...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-05-06/india-st... (https://archive.ph/eypzA)
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwyneele13qt
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty
Wasn't there something in the intro of "Mad Max fury road" about water wars?
Neither side gains to win much from a conflict, but should India really tamper with the water supply I hope they consult their economists first. Otherwise Pakistan has little choice but instantly commit to a full war.
The reason:
A significant amount of the food produced in Pakistan directly depends on the water from the river Indus. Even a moderate water supply reduction would lead to a loss of around 10% of the harvest.
That does not sound like much, BUT economically food is a commodity with low 'elasticity', meaning demand does not really go down with reduced supply. The result would therefore be a doubling of food prices.
In a country where people have little dispensable income, that means wide spread famine.
By all measures India is the more powerful state, but as Ukraine demonstrates: Desperation can make up for a lot of disadvantage.
If you mean people as a whole, sure. But it's not people who decide, it's the governments. And war is a tried and true measure for authoritarians of all stripes to use as an excuse to consolidate their power and rally the public. Because, well, it works - so long as you're on the winning side. But, given the history of Indo-Pak wars, I could see why the Indian government might believe that they'll win any open military confrontation that their actions may provoke.
If that's the case then the die is already cast. Early in the conflict, India released too much water on the Chenub too early for the season as a way to punish Pakistan. The quantity of water was such that Pakistan had no choice but to let it run off to the sea. This now means that the upstream Indian reservoir will not have enough water to release during regular season where coordinated releases ensure farmers have an uninterrupted supply during certain critical time periods.
By 2020 they already had Bayraktars and Javelins:
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/ukraine-to-buy-5...
The question is whether China would prop up Pakistan like NATO did for Ukraine
The only one India is messing with is the Chenab, and only because it messes up Pakistan's Rice and Sugar exports (major forex provider for Pakistan, and the supply chain is heavily owned by Pakistan's MilBus). Kharif sowing season ends in a couple weeks so messing with the Chenab for 3-4 weeks is enough to destroy the rice harvest in Northeast Punjab.
I recommend reading Ayesha Siddiqui's "Military Inc" to understand the Pakistani army (she was forced into exile because of the book), and "Army and Nation" by Steven Wilkinson to understand India's army.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty#Suspension
Following the suspension of the treaty, India significantly reduced the flow of water through the Chenab River, which crosses into Pakistan. Pakistani authorities claimed a 90% drop in water supply and accused India of choking the river’s flow. India also initiated new hydroelectric projects and began constructing dams on the western rivers, actions previously constrained under the treaty.[125][126][127]
Pakistan has reportedly warned that any attempt by India to disrupt the flow of water from shared rivers could be considered an act of war, and would attack India with nuclear weapons.[128]
India could build water channel, in style of China's South North water transfer project in less than half decade. Huge dams aren't really needed for just diversion, if India is really serious about it.
Neither side wants peace. But neither side wants to commit military manoeuvre that secures strategic aims. So we get this defence sale wet dream of a forever war instead.
There are no strategic goals here. Either side may recover some vantage points high up in the Himalayas. But that's about it.
And partners like KSA and UAE would come down hard if this became an extended conflict.
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Really? How do you know. Most Indians don't care about what happens to Pakistan or its people.
The moment Pakistan's military stops its terror funding and support activities, India will not care whether it Pakistan lives or dies.
The end of Lolita (old guy on a road, frustrated, goes off path) fits with the Furiosa taking a detour.
The roles are reversed. The young girl leaves in triumph (opposed to: the old guy leaves in frustration) and the old guy goes after her (opposed to: the young girl doesn't care about him leaving).
It could be just the skeleton of the story though.
Water is unobtanium of their scenic universe. In that movie perspective, it's related to healthy reproduction (healthy babies!), most likely cultural and not genetic.
As any work of art, it is subject to many interpretations. Not everything is a cue. But some cues exist in fact. Contrary to the meme swarm, you can't turn those ideas so quickly into what you want, otherwise it fails to connect to a sense of cultural continuity.
The old Minister represents an aged cultural interpretation of a nation (not exactly Japan, but what is perceived to be the form of Imperial Japan if it has won WWII).
After seeing it, the character is called out by his son, before quickly returning back to the war universe.
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"Violent extremist groups continue to plot attacks in Pakistan".
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62rv7le52lo
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/PAK/pak...
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ind/ind...
These terrorist attacks are always planned by Pak Army with the next steps in mind. Pak Army needs a war to re assert it's dominance. It is under a lot of pressure domestically due to what they did to democratic opposition, so precipitating war with India would provide a chance to consolidate the base. The choice of explicitly targeting people by religion was done to ensure an Indian response. Which is what their Chinese backers also want, start a war to ensure India gets distracted. Smart geopolitics on their part.
Long term India will have to think through deterring such terrorist actions from Pakistan. Pakistan was and remains a epicenter for Islamic terrorism and sooner or later the world will have to confront it, they have been getting a pass for far too long. Deterrence will only come when the real perpetrators which is the Pak Army - Jihadi complex is deterred. Hell Pakistani people might be better off without the current Pak Army.
As for the Indus Water Treaty shenanigans, nothing will happen there, it's all posturing.
As for the Canada thing by your logic still waiting on evidence from Canada.
The army isn't completely united, and the current COAS of Pakistan (Asim Munir) is much more ideological than the former one (Qamar Javed Bajwa), who he pushed out after Bajwa and Imran Khan demoted Munir from the ISI to a (relatively) lowly Corp Commander.
Bajwa was working on normalizing relations with India, but himself got undermined by Imran Khan and separately by Asim Munir.
India wants Pakistan to end cross-border terrorism. Everyone did not get what they want.
The attackers are allegedly backed by India.(India denies this, just like Pakistan deny involvement with the attacks in India).
So probably these bombings won’t solve anything as the issues appear to be a much more complicated. Therefore it is possible that everyone got what they need from these bombings.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Especially with India's current government? Not that Pakistan is any less nationalist, just that claiming that one side is just fighting terror here is a bit crazy. It's ironic since it's a very colonial/British type of rationalization
"My side is peaceful and is just fighting terror while the other side is full of fanatical nationalists" is always a very convenient propaganda tool though so I won't blame you for using it
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> India said it struck nine "terrorist infrastructure" sites, some of them linked to an attack by Islamist militants on Hindu tourists that killed 26 people in Indian Kashmir last month. Four of the sites were in Punjab and five in Pakistani Kashmir, it said.
Since you're saying this is a lie, maybe link to some source for this, since the source we currently have available, says the opposite.
They of course did confirm downing military targets, that is...the title of the submission we are discussing.
> Pakistan said India hit three sites with missiles, and a military spokesman told Reuters his country shot down five Indian aircraft, a claim not confirmed by India.
That’s a huge loss of aircraft! Are there any corroborating reports or more details about the aircraft/shootdown?
[1]: https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-attac...
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5 planes not yet, but it seems more than one. Indian and Pakistan TV are saying 3. Indian planes crashed in India.
It's the fog of war, and OSINT/couch generalling in the manner that people did with Israel or Ukraine won't work with India and Pakistan.
India has been leveraging the DPDP and national security laws really heavily to remove leaks on social media over the past couple weeks. All major social media platforms have a representative the Indian government coordinates with on information takedowns.
Major reason Musk backed off on his stance about X takedowns with India unlike with Brazil.
And on Pakistan's side, while there have been leaks on social media of troop movements, Pakistan has been implementing China's Great Firewall domestically for the past couple years now. If it was truly deemed critical, Pakistan would most likely lock down their domestic Internet.