Before the pandemic, I recall reading many articles on how burger flipping robots would put all the fast food workers out of the job. I imagined that they weren't widely deployed because of the cost compared to the cost of an average fast food worker. Now that hourly wages have gone up and I can assume the cost of the robots have gone down, why haven't we heard more robots deployed? Was it really just a scare tactic to depress wages or are they being used by not widely reported? When can I expect robots to take our jobs?
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That being said, I think the robots that have taken peoples jobs are generally in warehouses and manufacturing and hidden away from the public eye. Think Amazon fulfilment centres, or auto manufacturers. There are a lot of robotics at play there replacing a lot of people.
Self checkout is logic automation, making the checkout job easy enough that customer can be trusted to do it.
Checkout used to have two jobs: a checker and a customer standing around waiting. Self-checkout merged those two jobs into one.
It was pretty surreal. I used to enjoy going to the grocery store with my parents as a child.
When reading statistics like this, though, it's important to ask two things:
1. If the report lists how many jobs were lost due to automation, does it also talk about how many were created due to automation? If 20k are lost one year, and 19k are created, the article may not mention the latter, though it is relevant. In one sense, only the delta is important.
2. But, in another sense, the delta isn't what we care about. New jobs created by automation is misleading too. Because, are the jobs created by automation better than the ones that were lost? Is it the same people who lost their manufacturing jobs who got the new jobs? Are those people happy about the trade?
My point is that it's a complicated situation that has been (and likely will be) commonly oversimplified.
2. The cost of developing Chips, Robotics is still ridiculously high. If Robotics ( which really is nothing more than Automation 2.0 ) did make cost savings, I can assure you, you will see it first being tested and deployed in the likes of McDonalds where they get an economy of scale. And it is happening, but no way near ready yet.
3. Tech people, or mostly Silicon Valley Tech people have vastly underestimated human being. How flexible we are and how quickly we could adopt to different task and needs, while giving comparatively little wages.
4. This is the same with Foxconn.
5. You should take a look at Car manufacturing and Amazon Warehouse on Automation or Robotics.
>>When can I expect robots to take our jobs?
Cost will still need to come down. And it is going to be a long and gradual path. Steve Jobs wanted a Giant Machine that makes the machines. That was in the 90s.
Robots are complex machines and thus the R&D to get them to work well is huge. And they need (re-)programming for every change in the tasks. It all adds up to a very large capital outlay, considerable ongoing operating costs and thus financially is not competitive with minimum wage labor.
Look at real wages of the working class since then, vs productivity. Workers keep generating more profits, and don't get more pay.
> Even former Nixon advisor Daniel Moynihan stopped believing in basic income, following a fatal discovery upon publication of the final results of the Seattle experiment. One finding in particular grabbed everybody’s attention: The number of divorces had jumped more than 50%. Interest in this statistic quickly overshadowed all the other outcomes, such as better school performance and improvements in health.
> Ten years later, a reanalysis of the data revealed that a statistical error had been made; in reality, there had been no change in the divorce rate at all.
From https://thecorrespondent.com/4503/the-bizarre-tale-of-presid...
We pretend to be able to keep up with technological progress and most people do. Unfortunately not everyone has access to good schooling or the mental / physical capability.
If enough low to mid level jobs are automated away without securing people from getting lost in society, we could be facing anti-technological groups rising.
It seems like science fiction now, but will it?
Politics need to grow with our capabilities.
Just my $0.02.
But most jobs - making hamburgers, cooking, laying brick, pouring cement, packing stuff in warehouses or assembly lines - stuff that matters, automation looks as far off as ever. Sure machines do a lot to help in these fields but it's going to be a very long time if ever when machines can replace people completely. Even self driving cars appear to be much further away than people think.
We cannot and should not plan the economy around Silicon valley hype
funny you mention that, because discovery automation (the job that a lot of starting lawyers do) is huge. It used to take weeks or even months, to just sort through the mountains of papers and emails. Now it's indexable and searchable, and probably even have machine classifications to identify the valuable pieces of info.
The reason lawyers haven't been fired (and that you think lawyers aren't automate-able) is that they move up the value chain - provide client focused advice, etc, where the client prefer not to see a robot.
I don't want to disclose where I worked, but you can take a look at Ocado, they are in a similar space (although focused on a different target market) and expanding from being online grocer to making those FCs for other companies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DKrcpa8Z_E
I currently work at a small eocm business, the number of systems and integrations availble have gutted the typical career progression.
I am concerned at how to navigate from data entry clerk to CFO. This path was available historically, however, it is becomkng less-so.
Audit jobs are going too. Previously, a firm would need a big staff to check numbers. Now it's a lot easier to audit a process becuase the company uses SAP, Netsuite, or some other big name ERP.
It allows a smaller workforce to handle the same or greater volume. A port that had 1000 longshoremen can be staffed with 100 people. That’s as much due to workflows adapting to new technology, the use of standardized containers, and scale as it is a robot that slots in 1:1 for a crane operator. Bank of America opened a virtual branch in my town. There’s two ATMs that let you video chat with a teller if needed.
Or the end product itself has been obsoleted by something more mechanized, computerized, or standardized. Computer files means no more file clerks. Email reduces demand for First Class letters and mailroom staff. Dedicated staff passing around external mail and interdepartmental envelopes with the prior recipient and sender crossed out is an anachronism. Direct deposit/ACH and debit cards reduce demand for payroll staff, bookkeepers, tellers, armored car services, and checkbook manufacturing. Even low end legal labor like document review has been automated.
Demand is elastic. When goods are factory made they become cheaper and people individually buy more and more people can afford to buy one.