According to the official statistics on The Swedish Crime Survey, the sexual violence rate in Sweden remained about the same between 2005 and 2014. The refugee crisis began around 2014, and since then, the rates for sexual violence went down in 2015[1] something you never see mentioned on certain parts of the internet. 2016 saw an increase in crimes, but still less than pre-immigration levels in 2014.
Also the Swedish national council for crime prevention expected this rise over the last few years because in 2013(before there was a serious influx of migrants) Sweden broadened the definition of rape. A similar increase in crime was seen around 2006 because of 'legislative changes' about how things were recorded.
In the US research on the link between immigration and crime largely find no link between the two[2], and of the relative minority of studies that find a link, there are twice as many studies that find that increased migration reduces crime as the reverse.
In Germany, refugees are less likely to commit a crime than the average citizen[3]. From the publicly available information it is impossible to conclude with certainty that taking in refugees increases crime, especially considering that the vast majority of 'crimes' they do commit are non-violent things like not travelling with a ticket.[3]
What is rarely mentioned is the increasing crimes committed against refugees in refugee camps. In germany, there were 1,029 attacks against refugee residences in 2015, following 199 in 2014. Attacks on refugees increase the crime rate themselves.
It's totally irrelevant that the crimes has decreased. The point is that a majority of all violence and sexual crimes is performed by immigrants (as confirmed by Sweden's most famous crime professor GW a couple of days ago).
Why are you so afraid to see that immigrants are over represented in this category of crimes?
>The point is that a majority of all violence and sexual crimes is performed by immigrants
Source please? Because the available data, at least for Germany, does not support this claim at all.
Latest BKA report from first quarter of 2016 puts the amount of "offenses against sexual self-determination" for migrants at 1.10%. [1]
As somebody who's lived over 10 years right next to Bavaria's biggest initial reception center, in Zirndorf, I'm always amazed by all those claims as to how insanely criminal these people supposedly are. I've never witnessed anything like that, Zirndorf is actually quite peaceful town with barely anything ever happening.
> It's totally irrelevant that the crimes has decreased.
That depends. If you are looking for excuses for racism, it obviously is not relevant. But if you claim that the Swedish society has turned dangerous because of the immigrant crimes, it should be highly relevant for the discussion.
> People from foreign backgrounds are suspected of crimes more often than people from a Swedish background [...] In a later study, researchers at Stockholm University showed that the main difference in terms of criminal activity between immigrants and others in the population was due to differences in the socioeconomic conditions in which they grew up in Sweden.
So it seems that whilst immigrants are suspected of more crimes than average, they commit the same amount of crime as poor deprived members of indigenous populations.
The problem is that "immigrants" is an extremely imprecise category. I don't know enough about Sweden, but I know that in Germany, foreign crime is primarily dominated by organized crime from abroad: pickpocket gangs from North Africa, burglary gangs from Serbia and Georgia, the Russian Mafia, Lebanese crime clans, etc.
In contrast, Syrian refugees seem to be among the most law-abiding foreigners you can find (followed by Iraqi refugees, as I recall).
"Immigrants" is a fairly useless category for criminological purposes, as it combines several other categories with vastly different profiles, some with outsized crime rates, some below that of natives.
If the total number has remained steady, but the majority of perpetrators are now immigrants, then that implies the total number committed by native Swedes has dropped by roughly half in just a few years. This is highly implausible, so somebody's claims here are wrong.
Leif GW Persson, who the above commenter is talking about clarified this on TV just a couple of days ago. The segment starts 18 minutes in and is in Swedish: http://www.svtplay.se/video/12505960/veckans-brott/veckans-b... (hoping there is no region blocking...)
"The point is that a majority of all violence and sexual crimes is performed by immigrants "
This makes you a "right wing thug" for many people in Europe. Europe is lost. They lost their immunity for enemies of their open society. Uneducated immigrants from violent tribal societies will first make the social system implode, then the society.
Leif GW Persson is famous for writing books and being on tv shows - not for being a crime professor (and he is no longer a professor of criminology). There's a reason googling his name comes up with breitbart first, and goodreads second.
I don't know. Maybe HN should refrain from this subject.
Never trust any statistics that you didn't... - Believe this or go with the anecdotal real-world experience from a cop, linked below, Peter Springare, see e.g. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/764574/Political-Sweden-.... Never read about it in 'good' newspaper before. So who knows? The politic is under much pressure to tell the 'right' things now.
I just wish they would just tell the delicate numbers, e.g. ethnical, religious, economic, <whatever> background of inmates, terror, crime. And allow to talk about it freely. We now are a data driven society, why not here? Why afraid?
Why not give (collect) the full data? (I browsed around a bit, but I think I would need more detailed raw data to say something)
It seems that the main point of contention is whether migrants are more or less likely to commit crimes (in Sweden). This article doesn't answer this question at all for us. The following is the one remotely relevant statistic:
>> People from foreign backgrounds are suspected of crimes more often than people from a Swedish background. According to the most recent study, people from foreign backgrounds are 2.5 times more likely to be suspected of crimes than people born in Sweden to Swedish-born parents.
And even this isn't really what we're looking for because accusations != convictions. One can easily postulate that foreigners would have higher chances of being falsely accused, and factors like this have to be accounted for in the analysis.
The only factual evidence that we have to go on so far is otalp's reference to a study that showed German refugees are less likely to commit crimes than the average citizen.
Sadly, in this kind of argument, facts rarely matter and will likely not change erroneous views.
> According to the official statistics on The Swedish Crime Survey, the sexual violence rate in Sweden remained about the same between 2005 and 2014
Why picking the period 2005 to 2014? Immigration started 1960s and increased a lot 2014-2016. It would make a lot more sense to look at the sexual violence rate 1960-2016. Do you dare?
> In Germany, refugees are less likely to commit a crime than the average citizen
Meanwhile in Sweden:
> According to the most recent study, people from foreign backgrounds are 2.5 times more likely to be suspected of crimes than people born in Sweden to Swedish-born parents.
There's a difference between 'people from foreign backgrounds' and refugees. Even in Germany, I wouldn't be surprised if 'people from foreign backgrounds' commit crimes at a higher rate when you don't adjust for socio-economic conditions.
However the majority of Syrian refugees - about 70%[1][2][3] are women and children. Again, something that is rarely mentioned in certain parts of the internet.
>> According to the most recent study, people from foreign backgrounds are 2.5 times more likely to be suspected of crimes than people born in Sweden to Swedish-born parents.
What do you imply exactly? So Swedish police are more likely to suspect you if you are a foreigner, how unexpected.
Thank you for the actual statistics; can you provide a source for the legislative change? I found sources for 2005 and 2008 changes, but not one for 2013.
There's also one particular thing that doesn't pass the smell test for me from your German article:
"Less than 1 percent of the total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes, going against rumours spread on social media that these have become more common with the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees."
Here, the title is that "refugees commit less crime than Germans". However, the stats they quote show otherwise - despite refugees being anywhere from 0.8 to 2%, they committed at least 4% of the sex crimes in the country - a factor of at least 2. The article itself says that the sexual assaults reported during the New Year's Eve were not part of this number, so this is a conservative estimate. The article quotes a ratio of 2:1 men over women as a mitigating factor, however, doing the math most favorably towards refugees(100% of sexual assaults committed by men, 40/60 split in men/women in Germany) leaves you with an adjusted rate of ~2.6% of crimes, still significantly higher than their proportionate population.
From that article though I was able to acquire this statistic for 2015:
"The total number of this type of crime committed nationwide throughout 2015 was almost 47,000"
From here - https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=170... - I found that the total criminal offenses in germany were close to ~6mil. From this you can calculate the rate of sexual assault for the german population - 47k / 6mil ~ 0.8%. It's not as significantly different from the previous number, but still doesn't support the claim that, at 1%, refugees commit less sexual crimes than the german population.
EDIT: There is also a mitigating factor I just thought of that the newspaper didn't mention; refugees are likely to have a poor economic status in Germany, and are thus more likely to commit crimes for that factor alone. I don't know how to calculate for that as well.
I figured the same (the original Welt article thelocal.de quotes does not even say "refugees commit less crime than Germans" btw).
So, "less than 1%" of the "very low six figure" number of total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes.
Ok then, so let's conservatively say it's 100,000 * 0.009 = 900 sex crimes (not sure about what time range that even covers? 1 year? First 9 months in 2015 since the report was compiled in Oct 2016).
There have been 7022 sex crimes (reported) in 2015[1], total.
Using that, the conservative estimate for sex crimes committed by refugees of the total sex crimes committed is:
900 / 7022 = 12.8%
Let's assume (and grossly overestimate really) there were about 1.5 million refugees total in (the end of) 2015 and a total population of 81 million.
So 1.8% of the population was refugees, yet that cohort committed 12% of sex crimes.
But 900 / 1.5M refugees is a at most 0.06% of refugees (not even considering multiple offenders) who commit sex crimes, compared to the total population rate of 7022 / 81M = 0.009%
Downplaying the issue is not helpful. On the other hand, it's not helpful either but actually dangerous to rubberstamp all refugees as sex offenders when only at most 0.06% of them committed a sex crime in 2015.
As pointed out already, there are many mitigating factors to put this into context.
You're presumably reading the graph of the % of population polled every year who say "they've been exposed to sex offences"(not necessarily in that specific year), not the actual yearly crime rates, which are lower down and which state:
"In 2015, a total of 18,100 sex offences were reported; this is an 11 per cent decrease as compared with 2014. The number of rapes reported to police decreased by 12 per cent to 5,920 between 2014 and 2015. Reported offences regarding sexual molestation and sexual coercion, exploitation etc. also decreased to 8,840 (-8 %) and 1,430 (-6 %) respectively. "
Most of the crimes in Sweden is done by immigrants. Sweden is the rape capital of Europe. It's creepy to see this kind of behaviour condoned and labeled as nothing.
You are deliberately lying and citing well-known unreliable sources. Why are you doing this? Are you trying to push some pre-concieved agenda? I genuinely don't understand.
The original chart used in the report you reference comes with cautions in interpreting Sweden's position, which do not seem to have been heeded by the authors of the report.
Sweden's definition of rape and the way they count them is much more inclusive than other countries, so it is not valid to compare statistics across countries. See http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39056786
> if a person comes to the police and reports being raped by a partner or husband every day for the past year, the police will record each of these events.
In many other countries these incidents would be recorded just once: one victim, one type of crime and one record.
Doesn't the claim about refugees in Germany use the same trick the Swedish Government uses? There are fewer refugees than native Germans, so even if the absolute number of crimes conducted by Germans would be higher than the absolute number of crimes by refugees, it doesn't say anything about the prevalence of crime in the populations.
For example, if you have 100 "native" Germans and 10 refugees, and there were 3 German criminals and 1 refugee criminal, 10% of refugees would be criminals, but only 3% of Germans, even though more Germans than refugees would be criminals.
To me it seems the obvious problem is that the socio-economic dynamical system called Sweden doesn't know how to integrate foreigners. The core problem has nothing to do with the migrant crisis or Muslim cultures. The solution definitely requires a serious examination of the current migrant crisis and Muslim cultures.
Claim: "In Sweden there are a number of 'no-go zones' where criminality and gangs have taken over and where the emergency services do not dare to go."
Facts: No. In a report published in February 2016, the Swedish Police Authority identified 53 residential areas around the country that have become increasingly marred by crime, social unrest and insecurity. These places have been incorrectly labelled 'no-go zones'. What is true, however, is that in several of these areas the police have experienced difficulties fulfilling their duties; but it is not the case that the police do not go to them or that Swedish law does not apply there
Same as in Belgium then. They even throw stones at fire-fighters when they are doing their job. So nothing to worry about, right?
And I don't know if it is the same in Sweden, but you are not really politically allowed to say what kind of people live in those neighborhoods. So again, nothing to worry about.
No, not like that at the fucking all. I live in Stockholm, I just came today to my home from a friend's place that is in one of these pesky little maps marking it as a "no-go zone". Seriously, there's nothing alarming there at all, it's a very normal area a little bit outside the center with more affordable housing (compared to the center of Stockholm but not even near "cheap") and that's about it.
I've stayed on that friend's house for the whole of January, daily living there and haven't heard about a single crime happening. Asked my friend's flatmates just now and they laughed about it.
Same thing for a friend that lives inside what some maps label as "no-go zone" in Kista, nothing happened there at all for the past year.
So seriously, the alarmism here is very extrapolated compared to the actual risk. Compare to Belgium as you want but be a bit more honest about your utter ignorance instead of just a "And I don't know about Sweden"-trumpesque discourse.
I think one of the problems when talking about these issues is the frame of reference.
I have lived in the most dangerous part of our town (Linköping) for several years. I come from Latvia where a 'dangerous' part of a town meant that you do not go there because you will be robbed / knifed / shot in broad daylight. It was absolutely not the case with the most dangerous part of Linköping, even though people who had not had a direct experience with the place kept talking about it in the same way as I would talk about a true 'no-go' zone in Latvia. The worst thing that happened to me there was that my bicycle got stolen because I had forgotten to lock it overnight. My kid was playing outside unsupervised every day, I was coming home alone in the middle of night etc. Never had a single unpleasant experience.
The same is true about rape. In Sweden, the definition of rape and sexual abuse is incredibly broad. I know a person who got accused of sexual abuse by his wife because she said he had slipped up a finger in her vagina while asleep without her consent. Once. Several years ago. Can you imagine any other country where a case like this would ever be looked at even remotely seriously? Moreover, incidents involving sexual abuse are reported a lot more often, because everyone is a lot more informed about what consent means and what their rights are. It is highly unusual in the global context. So rape in Sweden is nothing like rape pretty much anywhere else in the world.
I could talk a lot more about these issues, but these two points are the most important to keep in mind when discussing crime in Sweden relative to crime everywhere else in the world.
> Same as in Belgium then. They even throw stones at fire-fighters when they are doing their job. So nothing to worry about, right?
Who reports that people do that? Tabloid newspapers? They've been lying about that for decades.
After the 1989 Hillsbourogh disaster (where people died due to health & safety issues, and negligence from the police), tabloid newspaper The Sun wrote a full page headline accusing Liverpool fans of attacking police who were trying to save people. It was a complete fabrication.
"Those people" attacking our police/first responders is a common lie that sells tabloid newspapers.
Those links are only to illustrate what people claim happen. They're not necessarily representative of what things are actually like. Talking to people who live in these places is just about the only way to get a good idea.
Well according to this article, crime across the whole country has gone down, so who really cares if there are pockets where the violence is so bad that police can't do their job?
I mean, who cares if there are 30 gernade attacks in Malmo [0] as long as overall deaths in Stockholm habe gone down by more than 30?
"but you are not really politically allowed to say what kind of people live in those neighborhoods"
It would help because those things are mostly done by the youth born there. Most migrants in a small (2sq miles although some like to extrapolate it to the whole country) community like Molenbeek (where most of those problems originate) are second generation or more. We are way past the point where it's a migration problem or where a migration stop would help.
I don't know how closing our borders or my absolute favourite "sending them back to their country of origin" (which will result in an infinite loop) will really help.
But then again for some we are not allowed to point to socio-economic problems, they pretend that it simply doesn't exist or it's the complete fault of the other side. What I often see in Belgium is the argument that Mohammed should find a job or that most are lazy.
But from the moment we the see the name on his resume or he shows up to do our garage door installation, it's a big "no-go" also. It's a vicious circle that works both ways.
There are areas in Dublin where children and teenagers throw stones at fire brigades and they are certainly not immigrants. These are old white Irish areas. What sets them apart is high levels of unemployment, poverty and under employment.
You can say whatever you want. What's important and this release is trying to demonstrate is that if you're going to make claims then provide the evidence.
Sure you could blame Muslims for those no-go areas. But you need to demonstrate it. And demonstrate absent other factors like socioeconomic status, unemployment rate etc.
Most are forced to correlate crime and migration because they can't write online that the real thing bothering Westerners is the virulent growth of an anachronistic religion that makes both men and women subservient to an old book or wizard in the sky. Somehow we'll find a few fellows here defending the increasing percentage of women completely dressed as ninjas as something natural in modern societies. Neglecting the violence that happens to them when they don't dress that way.
HN, it's time to be honest. That's the real elephant in the room.
It's strangely worded because "no-go area" is a dog-whistle that means a lot more to certain groups than others.
There's a whole bunch of people who think Muslims are secretly taking over western nations, and being aided by Jews. As part of that they believe they are literally setting up whole cities under Islamic law.
This is why Obama not being born in Kenya can seem like political trivia to one person, but evidence of a wide ranging conspiracy to another.
"Sharia" and "Muslim brotherhood" are a couple of other terms that have resonances you're probably not aware of amongst the "counter-jihadi" movement.
Straight from the horse's mouth (cops in this case). tl;dw they wear bulletproof vests and helmes in Malmö (BP vests are really rare on nordic police officers compared to the US)
That link includes video interviews with Stockholm police (not Malmö), with one police officer claiming they experience Police Fishing ("polis-fishing"), fake calls designed to bring the police to a specific location, where they are ambushed by locals who attack them by throwing stones at them ("steinkasting").
The report also mentions "no go-zones", but I can't find any mention of that specific phrase in the Swedish Police PDF that NRK link to and use as their reference.
VICE made a pretty good material about no-go zones in Sweden and anti-racist groups that demolish your car, house, get you fired from job for liking wrong thing on Facebook.
You have a few no-go zones in France, e.g. in the Northern districts of Marseille, where the police does not go except for big operations as it is too dangerous. It looks like it is not the case in Sweden as the police can still go everywhere, even if some districts are more dangerous than others.
I remember hearing something similar from a policeman here in Scotland ~30 years ago - to arrest someone who they expected to be violent from a high-rise in a rougher area would need a remarkable number of people involved as they didn't want to let anyone be out of sight of anyone else so that meant someone standing on each landing on the stairs.
And that's nothing to do with immigrants just us Scots and our unfortunate propensity for violence (see: radge).
Guadaloupe (a French island dominion in the Caribbean) has neighborhoods like this (black communities -- most of the black people descend from former slaves and have been there for generations). I heard about this on a podcast discussing a recent finding that the Guadaloupe Raccoon was actually the same species as the common North American raccoon and was hence subject to EU pest control regulations.
The Guadaloupe raccoon had been a common pet up to then -- and police began raiding neighborhoods with large teams to take people's pet raccoons into custody. These raids were often quite tense and dangerous.
I mention this to provide a case which demonstrates 'no go zones' that do not involve immigration. Its my guess that immigration is almost never the cause of a no-go-zone neighborhood -- I think such neighborhoods are almost always the result of real systemic social biases that cause socio-economic problems.
It's not the police who are labelling (or, more importantly, treating) these zones as "no go", that label has been applied by other parties, such as tabloid press.
Quite happy to see official sources at least trying to put the foot down regarding all this weirdness (I am Swedish).
What's weird about it? They deny that there's such a thing as a no-go zone in Sweden. Fits with my experience, as I've never encountered a place in Sweden that felt like that. Contrast that with here in Chicago, where there are neighborhoods where I will not go in broad daylight, even though they are not labeled no-go zones.
Seriously, we need to get a sense of perspective.
Edit: see also, perspective from Latvia in this thread.
Chicago has no-go zones, and no-go zones are always bad.
The difference here is that Sweden is creating new no-go zones. However that happens (in this case immigration) it is really bad. If a government policy would create new no-go zones, then that government policy is bad. Stop it!
Fixing the older no-go zones is a different problem. It is important, but a lower priority than not creating new no-go zones.
It's like... close the plug in the bottom of your boat before worrying about the water that is already there.
Especially when you consider that "53 residential areas" are way beyond what the Swedish government and law enforcement can control and contain. In a properly ran country, this would pose some kind of state emergency, but they keep ignoring it.
The level of government level censorship in Sweden is concerning. Maybe worries over negative reaction in the native population are used to justify hiding crime statistics, but I think it will lead to a violent backlash eventually.
It's shocking to me that "grenade attacks" have virtually become an every day occurrence.
Refugee centers have already been burned down in several instances, and anti-migrant sentiment is growing.
I really don't see how the large scale immigration going on in a Europe is going to result in a positive result, at least in short term over the next few generations.
I think it's incredibly irresponsible to encourage migration without being able provide productive meaningful lives to the migrants. People are not pets.
Translation: I'm so fucking tired. What I will write here below, is not politically correct. But I don't care. What I'm going to promote you all taxpayers is prohibited to peddle for us state employees. That tends to drive in a non-career and non-individual pay. Even though it's true. I don't care about all of this, will soon still retire after 47 years in this activity. I will now and every week to explain in detail what for employing me as investigators / investigator on coarse mcu police in örebro. It's not going to be good with the opinion or other leftist kriminologers perception in the general debate.
Our pensioners is on its knees, the school's a mess, healthcare is an inferno, the police have totalhavererat etc etc. We all know why but no one dare or wants to peddle the reason, due to the fact that Sweden always lived on the myth of prudes ultimate society who have osinnliga resources to be at the forefront when it comes to be the only politically correct option in a dysfunctional world that beats Knot on their own by destructive behavior in different name of.
Here we go; this I've handled Monday-Friday this week: rape, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, rape-assault and rape, extortion, blackmail, off of, assault, violence against police, threats to police, drug crime, drugs, crime, felony, attempted murder, Rape again, extortion again and ill-treatment.
Suspected perpetrators; Ali Mohammed, mahmod, Mohammed, Mohammed Ali, again, again, again Christopher... what is it true. Yes a Swedish name snuck on the outskirts of a drug crime, Mohammed, Mahmod Ali, again and again.
Countries representing the weekly all crimes: Iraq, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, Somalia, Syria again, Somalia, unknown, unknown country, Sweden. Half of the suspects, we can't be sure because they don't have any valid papers. Which in itself usually means that they're lying about your nationality and identity.
Now we're talking just örebro municipality. And these crimes occupies our utredningsförmåga to 100 %.
So it looks here and has been like for the past 10-15 years.
Return next Friday with a statement for the past week 🇸🇪
The two statements:
1. "Immigration doesn't lead to increase in crime rate".
2. "Most criminal offences are committed by immigrants".
dont't contradict each other. It may well be that immigrants push locals out of criminal business, because they are now the most poor and discriminated. That means that if you somehow decrease immigration rate, the business will be taken by Swedes again.
It's a bit simplistic to speak only about migrants.
In the case of Islamic terrorism, I've heard it commented that recruits come from the children of migrants rather than the migrants themselves.
This certainly seemed to borne out by the London 7/7 bombers and the Charlie Hebdo attackers to name two cases.
Prison populations in western countries also seem to have disproportionate numbers of ethnic minorities.
I also heard that Canada refuses to break down crime figures by ethnicity/race as a matter of public policy. If that is true it seems that there is a fear that the figures might look bad for minorities.
In the interests of community harmony, authorities commonly seem to want to accentuate the positive and sweep any negativity under the rug.
I understand that one motivation behind not providing crime breakdowns by ethnicity is to avoid providing information that might be used without context to justify hate.
But it is also a little racist to try to hide the problem, as if criminality is inherent to the ethnicity and cannot be solved, so may as well be ignored.
Your backswing is just the same old bigots getting a momentary upper hand because of the way the chips happened to fall in the last election. Whether they can leverage that into more lasting power remains to be seen.
Not sure what stats back up this claim. I've heard people say this movement is anti-globalization, about the economy, anti-PC, anti-establishment - yadda yadda yadda. Everyone has a theory, and it seems like people just choose the one they like best.
Trump at the moment has a very low approval rating - maybe not everyone got what they read into him?
... authorities commonly seem to want to accentuate the positive and sweep any negativity under the rug.
Like the Trump administration, and the Hungarian government... No, wait, they do the exact opposite. I guess all authorities are not the same after all? And it's not just black and white either. Governments around the world consist of people with incredibly different backgrounds and political agendas. There is no single "authorities".
It is a common refrain these days that governments are trying to hide the facts to advance some kind of shadowy globalist agenda. It's good to be critical, but you need to be equally critical of sources that claim to be telling you the real truth.
Your comment contains three claims, and they're all either "I heard" or "seem to have". We should try to do better.
Sure you need to be critical - but in both directions.
If you want to see the government trying to hide things, just look at Sylvester in Cologne and how long it took officials and the german TV channels to report/acknowledge what happened. If this information hadn't spread on Facebook, who knows if we would have ever known.
I am Austrian and until the migration crisis I've never felt misinformed. (BTW: Austria took more refugees per capita in than Germany) But this crisis changed that. It seemed the public media didn't just report, they wanted to persuade people to the right course. This is also about subtle things and therefore hard to prove: According to statistic refugees were about 70% male, but who was almost exclusively on the frontpage? Only women and children.
I can handle dubious or stupid Twitter/Facebook comments and chit-cat about what refugees supposedly did. The shocking thing was that public media was so one-sided. It is no coincidence that the name "lying press" got popular at this time. IMHO this was a general feeling that people had. That they didn't get the full story.
Those refugees are mostly good people. They escaped war. That must count as a glorious success?
Whether Sweden is better off or slightly worse off (yes we have more crime, more public expenses, etc) is secondary. Obviously there is a limit to what Swedes will accept - but even debating this issue without acknowledging the positive side of it (people being safe) is completely mental.
Readit News
Also the Swedish national council for crime prevention expected this rise over the last few years because in 2013(before there was a serious influx of migrants) Sweden broadened the definition of rape. A similar increase in crime was seen around 2006 because of 'legislative changes' about how things were recorded.
In the US research on the link between immigration and crime largely find no link between the two[2], and of the relative minority of studies that find a link, there are twice as many studies that find that increased migration reduces crime as the reverse.
In Germany, refugees are less likely to commit a crime than the average citizen[3]. From the publicly available information it is impossible to conclude with certainty that taking in refugees increases crime, especially considering that the vast majority of 'crimes' they do commit are non-violent things like not travelling with a ticket.[3]
What is rarely mentioned is the increasing crimes committed against refugees in refugee camps. In germany, there were 1,029 attacks against refugee residences in 2015, following 199 in 2014. Attacks on refugees increase the crime rate themselves.
[1]-https://www.bra.se/bra/bra-in-english/home/crime-and-statist...
[2]-(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_crime#United_S...).
[3]-https://www.thelocal.de/20151113/police-refugees-commit-less...
Why are you so afraid to see that immigrants are over represented in this category of crimes?
Source please? Because the available data, at least for Germany, does not support this claim at all.
Latest BKA report from first quarter of 2016 puts the amount of "offenses against sexual self-determination" for migrants at 1.10%. [1]
As somebody who's lived over 10 years right next to Bavaria's biggest initial reception center, in Zirndorf, I'm always amazed by all those claims as to how insanely criminal these people supposedly are. I've never witnessed anything like that, Zirndorf is actually quite peaceful town with barely anything ever happening.
[1]- https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/Themen/Siche...
That depends. If you are looking for excuses for racism, it obviously is not relevant. But if you claim that the Swedish society has turned dangerous because of the immigrant crimes, it should be highly relevant for the discussion.
> People from foreign backgrounds are suspected of crimes more often than people from a Swedish background [...] In a later study, researchers at Stockholm University showed that the main difference in terms of criminal activity between immigrants and others in the population was due to differences in the socioeconomic conditions in which they grew up in Sweden.
So it seems that whilst immigrants are suspected of more crimes than average, they commit the same amount of crime as poor deprived members of indigenous populations.
In contrast, Syrian refugees seem to be among the most law-abiding foreigners you can find (followed by Iraqi refugees, as I recall).
"Immigrants" is a fairly useless category for criminological purposes, as it combines several other categories with vastly different profiles, some with outsized crime rates, some below that of natives.
This makes you a "right wing thug" for many people in Europe. Europe is lost. They lost their immunity for enemies of their open society. Uneducated immigrants from violent tribal societies will first make the social system implode, then the society.
This claim is false,
> (as confirmed by Sweden's most famous crime professor GW a couple of days ago)
and this attribution is also false.
Leif GW Persson is famous for writing books and being on tv shows - not for being a crime professor (and he is no longer a professor of criminology). There's a reason googling his name comes up with breitbart first, and goodreads second.
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Never trust any statistics that you didn't... - Believe this or go with the anecdotal real-world experience from a cop, linked below, Peter Springare, see e.g. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/764574/Political-Sweden-.... Never read about it in 'good' newspaper before. So who knows? The politic is under much pressure to tell the 'right' things now.
I just wish they would just tell the delicate numbers, e.g. ethnical, religious, economic, <whatever> background of inmates, terror, crime. And allow to talk about it freely. We now are a data driven society, why not here? Why afraid?
Why not give (collect) the full data? (I browsed around a bit, but I think I would need more detailed raw data to say something)
>> People from foreign backgrounds are suspected of crimes more often than people from a Swedish background. According to the most recent study, people from foreign backgrounds are 2.5 times more likely to be suspected of crimes than people born in Sweden to Swedish-born parents.
And even this isn't really what we're looking for because accusations != convictions. One can easily postulate that foreigners would have higher chances of being falsely accused, and factors like this have to be accounted for in the analysis.
The only factual evidence that we have to go on so far is otalp's reference to a study that showed German refugees are less likely to commit crimes than the average citizen.
Sadly, in this kind of argument, facts rarely matter and will likely not change erroneous views.
Why picking the period 2005 to 2014? Immigration started 1960s and increased a lot 2014-2016. It would make a lot more sense to look at the sexual violence rate 1960-2016. Do you dare?
Meanwhile in Sweden:
> According to the most recent study, people from foreign backgrounds are 2.5 times more likely to be suspected of crimes than people born in Sweden to Swedish-born parents.
Two completely different things.
However the majority of Syrian refugees - about 70%[1][2][3] are women and children. Again, something that is rarely mentioned in certain parts of the internet.
[1]- http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/feb/...
[2]-https://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php
[3]-http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jan/...
What do you imply exactly? So Swedish police are more likely to suspect you if you are a foreigner, how unexpected.
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There's also one particular thing that doesn't pass the smell test for me from your German article:
"Less than 1 percent of the total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes, going against rumours spread on social media that these have become more common with the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees."
1% doesn't strike me as a very low percentage of sex crimes, but I googled around for some statistics, and found another article from the same source - https://www.thelocal.de/20160218/refugees-to-germany-commit-...
Here, the title is that "refugees commit less crime than Germans". However, the stats they quote show otherwise - despite refugees being anywhere from 0.8 to 2%, they committed at least 4% of the sex crimes in the country - a factor of at least 2. The article itself says that the sexual assaults reported during the New Year's Eve were not part of this number, so this is a conservative estimate. The article quotes a ratio of 2:1 men over women as a mitigating factor, however, doing the math most favorably towards refugees(100% of sexual assaults committed by men, 40/60 split in men/women in Germany) leaves you with an adjusted rate of ~2.6% of crimes, still significantly higher than their proportionate population.
From that article though I was able to acquire this statistic for 2015:
"The total number of this type of crime committed nationwide throughout 2015 was almost 47,000"
From here - https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=170... - I found that the total criminal offenses in germany were close to ~6mil. From this you can calculate the rate of sexual assault for the german population - 47k / 6mil ~ 0.8%. It's not as significantly different from the previous number, but still doesn't support the claim that, at 1%, refugees commit less sexual crimes than the german population.
EDIT: There is also a mitigating factor I just thought of that the newspaper didn't mention; refugees are likely to have a poor economic status in Germany, and are thus more likely to commit crimes for that factor alone. I don't know how to calculate for that as well.
So, "less than 1%" of the "very low six figure" number of total crimes committed by refugees are sex crimes. Ok then, so let's conservatively say it's 100,000 * 0.009 = 900 sex crimes (not sure about what time range that even covers? 1 year? First 9 months in 2015 since the report was compiled in Oct 2016).
There have been 7022 sex crimes (reported) in 2015[1], total.
Using that, the conservative estimate for sex crimes committed by refugees of the total sex crimes committed is: 900 / 7022 = 12.8%
Let's assume (and grossly overestimate really) there were about 1.5 million refugees total in (the end of) 2015 and a total population of 81 million.
So 1.8% of the population was refugees, yet that cohort committed 12% of sex crimes.
But 900 / 1.5M refugees is a at most 0.06% of refugees (not even considering multiple offenders) who commit sex crimes, compared to the total population rate of 7022 / 81M = 0.009%
Downplaying the issue is not helpful. On the other hand, it's not helpful either but actually dangerous to rubberstamp all refugees as sex offenders when only at most 0.06% of them committed a sex crime in 2015.
As pointed out already, there are many mitigating factors to put this into context.
[1] http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/2...
That seems to mean something different than "less than 1 percent of total sex crimes are committed by refugees".
Here's the BKA report on "Crime in the context of migrant influx 1st Quarter of 2016": https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/Themen/Siche...
That report also puts the number of "sexual assaults", out of all the crimes committed by migrants, at 1.10%.
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2014 is a funny time to end the analysis... We are in 2017.
Based on your link, it seems clear that the rates went up in 2015 (unless I am grossly misreading that graph).
For 2014 it was a little less than 2%. For 2015 it is more than 3%.
"In 2015, a total of 18,100 sex offences were reported; this is an 11 per cent decrease as compared with 2014. The number of rapes reported to police decreased by 12 per cent to 5,920 between 2014 and 2015. Reported offences regarding sexual molestation and sexual coercion, exploitation etc. also decreased to 8,840 (-8 %) and 1,430 (-6 %) respectively. "
Sweden: Rape Capital of the West https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5195/sweden-rape
Everything is factual in that statement but seems to burst some peoples bubble.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_statistics#Sweden
> if a person comes to the police and reports being raped by a partner or husband every day for the past year, the police will record each of these events. In many other countries these incidents would be recorded just once: one victim, one type of crime and one record.
For example, if you have 100 "native" Germans and 10 refugees, and there were 3 German criminals and 1 refugee criminal, 10% of refugees would be criminals, but only 3% of Germans, even though more Germans than refugees would be criminals.
Claim: "In Sweden there are a number of 'no-go zones' where criminality and gangs have taken over and where the emergency services do not dare to go."
Facts: No. In a report published in February 2016, the Swedish Police Authority identified 53 residential areas around the country that have become increasingly marred by crime, social unrest and insecurity. These places have been incorrectly labelled 'no-go zones'. What is true, however, is that in several of these areas the police have experienced difficulties fulfilling their duties; but it is not the case that the police do not go to them or that Swedish law does not apply there
And I don't know if it is the same in Sweden, but you are not really politically allowed to say what kind of people live in those neighborhoods. So again, nothing to worry about.
I've stayed on that friend's house for the whole of January, daily living there and haven't heard about a single crime happening. Asked my friend's flatmates just now and they laughed about it.
Same thing for a friend that lives inside what some maps label as "no-go zone" in Kista, nothing happened there at all for the past year.
So seriously, the alarmism here is very extrapolated compared to the actual risk. Compare to Belgium as you want but be a bit more honest about your utter ignorance instead of just a "And I don't know about Sweden"-trumpesque discourse.
The same is true about rape. In Sweden, the definition of rape and sexual abuse is incredibly broad. I know a person who got accused of sexual abuse by his wife because she said he had slipped up a finger in her vagina while asleep without her consent. Once. Several years ago. Can you imagine any other country where a case like this would ever be looked at even remotely seriously? Moreover, incidents involving sexual abuse are reported a lot more often, because everyone is a lot more informed about what consent means and what their rights are. It is highly unusual in the global context. So rape in Sweden is nothing like rape pretty much anywhere else in the world.
I could talk a lot more about these issues, but these two points are the most important to keep in mind when discussing crime in Sweden relative to crime everywhere else in the world.
Who reports that people do that? Tabloid newspapers? They've been lying about that for decades.
After the 1989 Hillsbourogh disaster (where people died due to health & safety issues, and negligence from the police), tabloid newspaper The Sun wrote a full page headline accusing Liverpool fans of attacking police who were trying to save people. It was a complete fabrication.
"Those people" attacking our police/first responders is a common lie that sells tabloid newspapers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillsborough_disaster#The_Sun
I wouldn't be surprised if every country has areas people claim are like that.
England: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647355/Firefighters... Scotland: http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/bonfire-nigh... Wales: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/youths-attacked... USA: http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/2015/12/01/at... Ireland: http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/watch-sickening-mo...
Those links are only to illustrate what people claim happen. They're not necessarily representative of what things are actually like. Talking to people who live in these places is just about the only way to get a good idea.
I mean, who cares if there are 30 gernade attacks in Malmo [0] as long as overall deaths in Stockholm habe gone down by more than 30?
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_grenade_attacks_in_S...
It would help because those things are mostly done by the youth born there. Most migrants in a small (2sq miles although some like to extrapolate it to the whole country) community like Molenbeek (where most of those problems originate) are second generation or more. We are way past the point where it's a migration problem or where a migration stop would help.
I don't know how closing our borders or my absolute favourite "sending them back to their country of origin" (which will result in an infinite loop) will really help.
But then again for some we are not allowed to point to socio-economic problems, they pretend that it simply doesn't exist or it's the complete fault of the other side. What I often see in Belgium is the argument that Mohammed should find a job or that most are lazy.
But from the moment we the see the name on his resume or he shows up to do our garage door installation, it's a big "no-go" also. It's a vicious circle that works both ways.
Wonder what America would be like today if they'd cleared out all Italian and Irish immigrants 100 years ago because of immigrant ghettos?
Who said there is nothing to worry?
> but you are not really politically allowed to say what kind of people live in those neighborhoods.
First, source for not allowed to say. Second, what do you want to say?
Sure you could blame Muslims for those no-go areas. But you need to demonstrate it. And demonstrate absent other factors like socioeconomic status, unemployment rate etc.
Most are forced to correlate crime and migration because they can't write online that the real thing bothering Westerners is the virulent growth of an anachronistic religion that makes both men and women subservient to an old book or wizard in the sky. Somehow we'll find a few fellows here defending the increasing percentage of women completely dressed as ninjas as something natural in modern societies. Neglecting the violence that happens to them when they don't dress that way.
HN, it's time to be honest. That's the real elephant in the room.
They're not migrants, refugees or any kind of ethnic minority though. Just poor and bored.
There's a whole bunch of people who think Muslims are secretly taking over western nations, and being aided by Jews. As part of that they believe they are literally setting up whole cities under Islamic law.
This is why Obama not being born in Kenya can seem like political trivia to one person, but evidence of a wide ranging conspiracy to another.
"Sharia" and "Muslim brotherhood" are a couple of other terms that have resonances you're probably not aware of amongst the "counter-jihadi" movement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharia_patrols
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ra45nX9JmW4
There are parts of Sharia that are not compatible with Western liberal values.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24PCOMi3QAQ&feature=youtu.be...
Straight from the horse's mouth (cops in this case). tl;dw they wear bulletproof vests and helmes in Malmö (BP vests are really rare on nordic police officers compared to the US)
https://www.nrk.no/urix/svensk-politi_-_-vi-er-i-ferd-med-a-...
That link includes video interviews with Stockholm police (not Malmö), with one police officer claiming they experience Police Fishing ("polis-fishing"), fake calls designed to bring the police to a specific location, where they are ambushed by locals who attack them by throwing stones at them ("steinkasting").
The report also mentions "no go-zones", but I can't find any mention of that specific phrase in the Swedish Police PDF that NRK link to and use as their reference.
>and anti-racist groups that demolish your car, house, get you fired from job for liking wrong thing on Facebook.
Yea. It's your prerogative to hold controversial opinions. But you certainly don't have any right to be publicly racist and expect no retaliation.
To clarify, I meant legal retaliation using legal means like firing the racist person from their job. Burning down their car is of course, illegal.
And that's nothing to do with immigrants just us Scots and our unfortunate propensity for violence (see: radge).
The Guadaloupe raccoon had been a common pet up to then -- and police began raiding neighborhoods with large teams to take people's pet raccoons into custody. These raids were often quite tense and dangerous.
I mention this to provide a case which demonstrates 'no go zones' that do not involve immigration. Its my guess that immigration is almost never the cause of a no-go-zone neighborhood -- I think such neighborhoods are almost always the result of real systemic social biases that cause socio-economic problems.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/religion/nogozones.asp
Yeah Dearborn, the HQ of Ford Motor Company. I've been to Dearborn, it sure is not a no-go zone or anything to be scared of. Beyond ridiculous.
It's not the police who are labelling (or, more importantly, treating) these zones as "no go", that label has been applied by other parties, such as tabloid press.
Quite happy to see official sources at least trying to put the foot down regarding all this weirdness (I am Swedish).
They're not exactly no-go, more like "no-go without bulletproof vest, riot gear and a big set of cojones"
Seriously, we need to get a sense of perspective.
Edit: see also, perspective from Latvia in this thread.
The difference here is that Sweden is creating new no-go zones. However that happens (in this case immigration) it is really bad. If a government policy would create new no-go zones, then that government policy is bad. Stop it!
Fixing the older no-go zones is a different problem. It is important, but a lower priority than not creating new no-go zones.
It's like... close the plug in the bottom of your boat before worrying about the water that is already there.
Especially when you consider that "53 residential areas" are way beyond what the Swedish government and law enforcement can control and contain. In a properly ran country, this would pose some kind of state emergency, but they keep ignoring it.
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It's shocking to me that "grenade attacks" have virtually become an every day occurrence.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_grenade_attacks_in_S...
Refugee centers have already been burned down in several instances, and anti-migrant sentiment is growing.
I really don't see how the large scale immigration going on in a Europe is going to result in a positive result, at least in short term over the next few generations.
I think it's incredibly irresponsible to encourage migration without being able provide productive meaningful lives to the migrants. People are not pets.
CTRL+F "device" and you'll find 16 occurrences.
These are IEDs. This is terrorism. Where did they learn to make them?
It's the same with the anti-tank mines (I'm not even joking.)
Homs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoRdCbDd50o
I'm pretty sure immigrants are better off in Sweden even with the anti-immigrant sentiment.
WikiLeaks @wikileaks Swedish media admits to censoring stories for the last five years on migrant crime
https://www.facebook.com/peter.springare/posts/1020830068234...
Translation: I'm so fucking tired. What I will write here below, is not politically correct. But I don't care. What I'm going to promote you all taxpayers is prohibited to peddle for us state employees. That tends to drive in a non-career and non-individual pay. Even though it's true. I don't care about all of this, will soon still retire after 47 years in this activity. I will now and every week to explain in detail what for employing me as investigators / investigator on coarse mcu police in örebro. It's not going to be good with the opinion or other leftist kriminologers perception in the general debate.
Our pensioners is on its knees, the school's a mess, healthcare is an inferno, the police have totalhavererat etc etc. We all know why but no one dare or wants to peddle the reason, due to the fact that Sweden always lived on the myth of prudes ultimate society who have osinnliga resources to be at the forefront when it comes to be the only politically correct option in a dysfunctional world that beats Knot on their own by destructive behavior in different name of. Here we go; this I've handled Monday-Friday this week: rape, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, rape-assault and rape, extortion, blackmail, off of, assault, violence against police, threats to police, drug crime, drugs, crime, felony, attempted murder, Rape again, extortion again and ill-treatment.
Suspected perpetrators; Ali Mohammed, mahmod, Mohammed, Mohammed Ali, again, again, again Christopher... what is it true. Yes a Swedish name snuck on the outskirts of a drug crime, Mohammed, Mahmod Ali, again and again.
Countries representing the weekly all crimes: Iraq, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, Somalia, Syria again, Somalia, unknown, unknown country, Sweden. Half of the suspects, we can't be sure because they don't have any valid papers. Which in itself usually means that they're lying about your nationality and identity.
Now we're talking just örebro municipality. And these crimes occupies our utredningsförmåga to 100 %.
So it looks here and has been like for the past 10-15 years.
Return next Friday with a statement for the past week 🇸🇪
In the case of Islamic terrorism, I've heard it commented that recruits come from the children of migrants rather than the migrants themselves. This certainly seemed to borne out by the London 7/7 bombers and the Charlie Hebdo attackers to name two cases.
Prison populations in western countries also seem to have disproportionate numbers of ethnic minorities.
I also heard that Canada refuses to break down crime figures by ethnicity/race as a matter of public policy. If that is true it seems that there is a fear that the figures might look bad for minorities.
In the interests of community harmony, authorities commonly seem to want to accentuate the positive and sweep any negativity under the rug.
But it is also a little racist to try to hide the problem, as if criminality is inherent to the ethnicity and cannot be solved, so may as well be ignored.
Your backswing is just the same old bigots getting a momentary upper hand because of the way the chips happened to fall in the last election. Whether they can leverage that into more lasting power remains to be seen.
Trump at the moment has a very low approval rating - maybe not everyone got what they read into him?
Like the Trump administration, and the Hungarian government... No, wait, they do the exact opposite. I guess all authorities are not the same after all? And it's not just black and white either. Governments around the world consist of people with incredibly different backgrounds and political agendas. There is no single "authorities".
It is a common refrain these days that governments are trying to hide the facts to advance some kind of shadowy globalist agenda. It's good to be critical, but you need to be equally critical of sources that claim to be telling you the real truth.
Your comment contains three claims, and they're all either "I heard" or "seem to have". We should try to do better.
"Police in Ontario were forbidden to compile race-based crime statistics." https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2015/08/17/a-thorny-history...
"Charlie Hebdo attackers: born, raised and radicalised in Paris" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/12/-sp-charlie-he...
"The men responsible for the carnage [7/7 attacks] all grew up in Britain" http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/77-bombings-l...
"According to the Young review, the disproportionate representation of young black and Muslim prisoners in the UK is now greater than that in the US." https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jun/24/rise-proport...
If you want to see the government trying to hide things, just look at Sylvester in Cologne and how long it took officials and the german TV channels to report/acknowledge what happened. If this information hadn't spread on Facebook, who knows if we would have ever known.
I am Austrian and until the migration crisis I've never felt misinformed. (BTW: Austria took more refugees per capita in than Germany) But this crisis changed that. It seemed the public media didn't just report, they wanted to persuade people to the right course. This is also about subtle things and therefore hard to prove: According to statistic refugees were about 70% male, but who was almost exclusively on the frontpage? Only women and children.
I can handle dubious or stupid Twitter/Facebook comments and chit-cat about what refugees supposedly did. The shocking thing was that public media was so one-sided. It is no coincidence that the name "lying press" got popular at this time. IMHO this was a general feeling that people had. That they didn't get the full story.
So do you think the problem is likely to be greater in 20 years time?
As they say, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
What's your opinion?
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/688999781193117696?lang...
There's a single mention of the word "immigration" in the article. It has absolutely no mentions of "migrant crime", as WikiLeaks claims in its tweet.
The only thing that the article says about immigration is that an anonymous journalist "can't be bothered" to talk about sensitive migration issues.
Calling that "Swedish media admitting to censoring stories" is as far fetched as it can be.
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Trump Is Right: Sweden’s Embrace of Refugees Isn’t Working https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-is-right-swedens-embrace-...
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/how-sweden-became-an-exam...
"How Sweden became an example of how not to handle immigration"
By Tove Lifvendahl, political editor-in-chief at Svenska Dagbladet.
(She gets away with saying these things since she is adopted from Korea.)
Out of the eight parties currently represented in the Swedish parliament they are currently the most popular party, polling at 26.9%.
Source:
http://nyheteridag.se/nytt-sd-rekord-i-sentio-pa-otroliga-26...
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Those refugees are mostly good people. They escaped war. That must count as a glorious success?
Whether Sweden is better off or slightly worse off (yes we have more crime, more public expenses, etc) is secondary. Obviously there is a limit to what Swedes will accept - but even debating this issue without acknowledging the positive side of it (people being safe) is completely mental.